Latest Irish Political Party Polling - October 2024 (2).png

Source: Irish Polling Indicator | Stefan MüllerCreated with Datawrapper

The political situation in Ireland is heating up as expectations rise that Taoiseach Simon Harris will call a general election before the end of 2024. This comes in the wake of Fine Gael’s resurgence under his leadership, with the party’s polling figures showing a solid 25% of public support. This is a marked improvement from the lows the party experienced under Leo Varadkar’s leadership, which saw Fine Gael struggling to maintain voter confidence. Harris, who became leader in April, has managed to reinvigorate the party by addressing pressing national issues like healthcare, housing, and the cost of living—problems that have long been at the forefront of voters' concerns.

Harris’s leadership style, seen as more pragmatic and solution-oriented, has resonated with the electorate. He has worked to position Fine Gael as a party of practical solutions, focusing on rebuilding the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, improving access to healthcare, and addressing the chronic housing crisis. His government has also focused on reforms in the public sector, an area where dissatisfaction has grown in recent years. These efforts have boosted Fine Gael’s standing, enabling them to regain trust among a broader spectrum of the voting public.

On the other hand, Sinn Féin, once seen as the frontrunner to challenge Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, has suffered a sharp decline in public support. Currently polling at 16%, Sinn Féin’s drop is attributed to a series of internal scandals that have tainted the party’s image. The decline is notable given that, just two years ago, Sinn Féin was polling as high as 36%, appearing poised to take power in the next election. This dramatic shift has left Mary Lou McDonald’s party scrambling to regain its footing, with political analysts speculating that its chances in the upcoming general election may be significantly weakened if the current trend continues.

Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, Fine Gael’s coalition partners, have seen more stable support levels, with Fianna Fáil holding at around 20% and the Greens at 5%. Despite these steady numbers, the coalition will still face a tough challenge in the next election. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are hoping to ride the wave of Harris’s popularity and the overall recovery of the economy. The coalition is now carefully weighing its options as the clock ticks toward the end of its term in March 2025. Should Harris call a snap election before the end of the year, as many political commentators predict, it could be a strategic move to secure a mandate while Fine Gael is on the upswing.

The public mood also reflects some dissatisfaction with Independent candidates, who have seen fluctuating support in recent months. Independents reached a high point earlier this year but have since dropped back to around 17% in the polls. The general political atmosphere is one of uncertainty, with voters closely watching the government’s performance on key issues. Harris’s Fine Gael seems to be seizing this moment of opportunity, making a general election likely to be called sooner rather than later.

The upcoming months will be critical for all political parties as they navigate scandals, public opinion shifts, and policy debates, all of which will shape Ireland’s political future