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$10000 to invest. Zero or 1 million in 5 years.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Youngdan, Nov 29, 2015.

  1. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    To finally bring this up to date. The main thing is that Trump has really hurt my effort but such is life. I started off with a very aggressive approach and I was a bit early but hit it big on mining shares. Then I starting shorting with mixed results. Then Trump got in and I was in for some serious hurt. At one time I put in about 12000 and turned into about 60000.

    Today, I have put in $37750 in total and it is worth $41400 approx. While still up it is a long way from what it was. I sold off a lot of my miners, most at a profit but some at a loss. This might look good but I am holding some large losses that have not been taken as of yet. I closed out Great Panther with a profit of 1270 or 32%. I closed Barrick Gold ABX for a profit of 2657, 53%
    I closed out DRD for a profit 349, or 16%.
    I closed out SLV for a profit of 1191 or 21%
    I closed out NEM for a profit of 94 or 1%
    I closed out HMY for a loss of $407 or 21%
    I closed out KGC for a loss of 73 or 2%
    I closed out SA for a loss of 145 or 7%
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I have traded 4 different options.
    I sold 4 Puts of HL at a strike of 5.50 expiring Mar 17th 2017. I got about 175 dollars for this. They went well till the day before expiration when HL fell like a stone below 5.50 so I had to buy the 400 shares at 5.50, which is not too bad as it turned out as HL is $5.43 at the moment.

    I also sold 1 Call on NEM with a 35 strike for Mar 17 2017 . That worked out lovely as it expired worthless so I made $245 from the buyer.

    More recently I did what I said I would never again do and that was to buy options.
    I bought 14 calls in Slv for Mar 2018 at a strike of 20 for 0.88 a contract.
    Later a week I bought 13 calls in SLV Jan 2018 with a strike of 19 for 0.83

    Both of these are now about 0.30 and that is a very fast $1500 loss. Did I tell ye not to buy options.
     
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  3. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I have sold short some more undaunted.
    Today I shorted 78 shares of CMCSA at $38.93. Needless to say it rose to 39.05 now.
    On May 5th I sold short 67 shares of AMC at 29.38, it is now 27.70.
    On April 24th I sold out and closed my SLV and DRD as I said already.
     
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  4. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I am having my first good day in quite a while. Things are not looking so rosey in Trumpville and that suits me. Also Treasury auctions today and yesterday had weak demand, plus gold is up.All good news.

    So flush with hope and more importantly, buying power. I sold short 40 shares of TWX at 98.69.

    Once again it is going in the wrong direction and is now 98.76 and rising. I must cast a spell on it.
     
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  5. maxflinn

    maxflinn Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Do you have less or more than $10K now Dan?
     
  6. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Forget about the $10000. I have put in $37750 because of all the margin calls as gold went down. I have big losses in the likes of BBY where I sold short at about 30 and it shot up to 52 and I am short 123 shares. So that is a 2700 loss on the 3700 approx.

    Despite all this and despite Trump my value is almost 44000. This is very good but nothing compared to 6 months ago or more when my 12000 at the time was worth 60000.

    But things change quick, TWX now has reversed again
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    It likely is hard to follow all the figures but my big big position relative to the rest are the two silver miners HL (HECLA) and CDE(coeur de laine mining). I can't even spell it right but it better go up.

    So I need silver to rise and the market overall to fall basically
     
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  8. maxflinn

    maxflinn Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Great stuff! Maybe you were doing better but at least you're still a decent bit ahead.
     
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  9. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Today and yesterday were very good days for me and I am very upbeat again. A lot of my shorts that went against me are coming back down near break even again. I will likely use my improving position to add more shorts next week if it continues my way. I am upnicely on a few shorts so I might to these positions or something new.

    The bankruptcy of Puerto Rico a few days ago was a big event that likely has left a few entities in bad need of cash . A contraction into a deflationary crash can gather steam real fast here.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Monday and Tuesday have been very good to me and I am feeling that I am back in the grooe after that nasty 100 days odd of pain.I bought a few more calls. 30 contracts of NEM strike 60 for next January at 0.18. They are a lot less not with an ask of 0.10. So they cost 540 and next day they are worth $255. obviously i wish i had not done that but it is a relatively small thing that could reverse in the next 2 days. That is a big longshot bet, which is the whole idea of options of course.
    My balance is much improved and will be looking to add something more tomorrow as long as things continue going my way. The dollar index has just gone below 98 and that is good for me
     
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  11. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Things are looking far more rosey these 3 days than of late recently. The metals well up and the market well down which means more margin for me. That being the case I bought 550 shares of IAG to go with the 550 shares I already had, which were up 54% from when I bought them. I paid $4.50. That means my new enlarged position is up 22%. I just need it to continue up and keep adding. That is the easy part if one is brave. The hard part is to sell immediately if it turns round and gets down to my average buy price.

    I also sold short 12 shares of CHTR at $318.45 to go along with the 5 that I already had which I shorted at $320.63. So now I am short 17 shares at an average sell price of 319.09. It last traded at 317.92 so I am content.
    After I sold short the first 5, it went against me and went all the way to 348.80 and I was glad I only shorted 5.
    My rule that I stick to is to not to add to a losing position. This is all to common and human nature so had it never come down I would not have shorted more. It is a significant position now, with a 5424 dollar price of selling
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I am losing some today which is no great surprise after 4/5 good days. Gold and silver being down is sinking the miners of course. However the rebound after a 270 loss in the Dow is pretty feeble here at plus 23 so many of my shorts are actually falling on the day and that can only mean good news for me as time goes on. Even my biggest short BBY is down. This is my biggest loser having lost about 2600 on a trade of 3700.

    I am temped to short DE whose earnings are released tomorrow but I have only 1400 of a cushion in buying power so I will likely not bother as the market might continue against me tomorrow and that could put me in another margin call, of which I got more than I had intended at the start .
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Fortunately I did not have more money available yesterday to short DE as the earnings were very good and the stock is looking to be up 7% in premarket trading. I was saved by the Fates as things are looking good for me and don't need any more setbacks like that would be. Of course maybe now is the time to short it.

    Nice come back for gold/silver as the dollar continues to weaken at 97.30 on the dollar index.
     
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  14. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Monday was decent but today the gold miners slid back. I hope it holds steady and comes back a bit tomorrow.
    A significant piece of news today was the drop in home sales of 11%. Ignore the excuses, it is the popping of a huge bubble.
    I am short HD and LOW and if I had more buying power I would load up more, even though that is against my rule. I am so convinced it is the top that I would make an exception. I would like to be more short of cable, movie and anything that could be described as entertainment.

    LOW : Summary for Lowe's Companies, Inc. Common S - Yahoo Finance

    HD : Summary for Home Depot, Inc. (The) Common S - Yahoo Finance

    If those 2 suckers have not topped out, then I am Stevie Wonder.
    I would love to ride them down to zero.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Well LOW at least is in for a rocky day today after missing it's earning this morning. I sold the 45 shares short at 74.87 so it needs to drop a good distance to get back to break even.It closed at 82.34
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Well things came back somewhat but not enough. I am still in need of some margin money if it does not go my way Monday. BB was very painful when it jumped Thursday, such is life.
    However gold and silver look very good at 1267 and 17.31. Let's see if there is a rate hike in June, which seems to be priced in. A hike woulfd stress the overall market so I am as usual very upbeat. A few economic reports were weaker than expected and I expect that to be the beginning.
    With the price of food here nowadays I can't see anyone having too much money. Eating out is even more expensive.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I am down 23% on my 30 shares of HD that I shorted. I am seriously considering doubling up. This is usually not advisably but I am so convinced that this industry has topped out that I am going to break my rule. Of course I am down 94% on my BBY shorts but am not convinced they have topped yet but am watching.
    This rule has helped me greatly by having me stand aside and resist the urge to throw good money after bad. BBY has basically doubled since I shorted it.
     
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  19. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    We I did short more HD, 22 shares at 153.19, and they have fallen very slightly since, that was Friday.
    On Thursday I shorted 16 shares of MTN at 207.75 and they have fallen nicely to 202.64. I am now short a total of 31 shares and am down 10% on the combined.
    I am short a total of 52 shares of HD and am down 11.66% on that total.

    A lot of these have gone badly against me so I had to put up another$3500 so my total in is 41,250. My stake is worth 49400 so despite all the disasters I am still ahead but nothing compared when I was worth 60g after putting up only 12g.
    I am not in the least bit worried about things here. Friday was a warning crack in the market with the tech selloff while the Dow was up 90 points. It is just waiting for the penprick.
    I will be looking to short more of these big communications , TWX, CMCSA and CHTR as soon as they reach the break even point as they come back down in price after going against me.
     
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  20. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I have had to put in another 5500 since the last update, that is 46,750 total.
    My positions are worth just a few hundred dollars more, so basically I am all the way back to break even. Plus instead of playing with a smallish sum of 12000, I now have a biggish sum at risk.

    Just to put this all in context, I had turned 12000 into 60000 until Trump was elected, and it is a death by a thousand cuts of pain ever since.

    But over the last 10 days or so, things appear to have been struggling to get most stocks higher. Some serious deflation would suit me fine
     
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