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$10000 to invest. Zero or 1 million in 5 years.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Youngdan, Nov 29, 2015.

  1. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    No, for 2 reasons. I am not a day trader. I have closed our relatively few of my positions and I am using this account for about 2 years now. I have added to positions but a short position is a longer term investment. Ideally I would like to hold it until it went to zero and bankruptcy for the company even if it took 20 years.

    I do not know what machine learning is at all.
     
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  2. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    Building systems that engage in arbitrage. Guaranteed money in very small amounts. The only problem is you have to be able to write about a million lines of code. Or you can use excel C++
     
  3. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    You also have to have huge amounts of money to begin with to make it worth your while - plus having co-location with the exchanges to beat your rival arbs in timing.
     
  4. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    Tell me are you a contrarian in that you pick stocks to short that are being pumped up by the news networks but have poor fundamentals?
     
  5. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    Me?
     
  6. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    no Young dan
     
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  7. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    I can't even spell arbitrage.
     
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  8. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    I don't really go along with that flashboys argument where they are buying offices beside the exchange to get a millisecond advantage. I think the machines can learn from the trends and patterns they trade and can be more logical than the human mind in deciphering if there is going to be a breakout.
     
  9. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    Yes, and I believe they all have poor fundamentals because the country and everyone in it that I see are basically broke. I can't believe it has not already crashed.
     
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  10. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    Which country is that Ireland?
     
  11. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    I shorted some more HD today, about 4 grands worth.
     
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  12. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    I shorted another 28 shares of HD at 147.66, now trading at 147.57

    I would love to short something else but have no buying power so if the market goes against me I will have to add cash, which I don't really want to do so fingers crossed for the next 104 minutes hoping for weakness into the close. Dow down 24
     
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  13. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    I think algorithms are certainly useful, and machine learning is likely to be useful on the very small scale - say up to the 15 min chart. But not really on the scale Youngdan is working on. I don't think even hedgefunds would use algos for selecting very long term trades. They might use them for portfolio balancing alright, i.e. how much risk to allocate to a given security at any given time.
     
  14. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    Oh did you hear there were celebrations on the floor of the NYSE when it was announced that Bannon was gone. He is an economic nationalist unlike the other pro business heads in his cabinet that are globalises. Einstein on the floor was literally doing cartwheels when the news broke
     
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  15. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    No, I am outside Boston, Massachusetts. Where a fantastic real estate bubble is about to crash.
     
  16. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    On the contrary those patterns that occur happen in the longer term charts due to patterns in human behaviour and overbuying or overselling occurs. Think of the turtles 40 day strategy. They all work on longer time frames and those patterns that occur are misinterpreted or botched by human fear and trapped traders. Maxine's execute without an ounce of fear and recognise these patterns earlier in the trend.
     
  17. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    Theres a real estate bubble in London also. A one bed apartment in Twickenham which is miles outside London are selling for 750,000 pounds. Not sustainable in the long term and will crash. Yeah the USA has massive gap between rich and poor and most people are poor
     
  18. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    Ya got that right. You got a lot of young people here just living for the here and now. No planing for the future, no planing for kids, renting, spending every penny and more on themselves but the years are clicking up.

    When this bursts it will be the most dramatic exciting/scary event in financial history. Forget about 29 or tulipmania or The South Sea Bubble, this will be epic.
     
  19. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    I wish I had a handy million bucks to short this turkey of a market, multiplying it all the way down.
     
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  20. Liberal D4'er

    Liberal D4'er Member Political Irish

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    Tell me Tadgh do you believe in diversification when it comes to investing? Reason I ask is because you don't when it comes to the management of the country but surely to have our eggs all in one basket is not very wise?