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$10000 to invest. Zero or 1 million in 5 years.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Youngdan, Nov 29, 2015.

  1. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Well silver did not hold 18 and is instead at $17.20 but no worries.
    I had a very nice day today and 7 of my 8 largest positions all went nicely in my favor despite the market continuing what appears to be it's never ending rise to new records.

    BBY : Summary for Best Buy Co., Inc. - Yahoo Finance

    I am short 158 shares of BBY. It is very helpful to see it tank 8% today on heavy volume. I am still down over $2500 on this position but we are getting there nicely on days like this. I will surely be looking tomorrow to short something else as after today I am back with more margin buying power.

    We await the decision from the Fed tomorrow, Wednesday, . Sometimes gold rallies on decision day. If rates are raised of course it just might be the pinprick that bursts the bubble.

    As always I am very optimistic on being correct, (as all market players of course are as otherwise they would not play the market)
     
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  2. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Not a chance of rates being raised today. The focus will be on balance sheet normalization. Yellen has a big problem. As seen in the graph below, the private banks hold over two trillion dollars in excess reserves at the Fed. That's money the banks would love to lend out to the public at a much higher rate than they get from the Fed, and the public are starting to demand it as the economy heats up. Add that kind of money to a heating economy and you get a bubble before you know it - and a crash again soon after. So Yellen must drain those reserves by selling bonds back to the banks. But how to do that without crashing the bond market? Most are speculating that she won't actually sell any bonds back into the market, but will simply not replace maturing bonds. But that would take years - decades - to normalize the balance sheet, and so wouldn't solve the danger of a bubble at all.

    Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions
     
  3. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I am having another decent day despite the DJ being up, which is ideal. BBY down another bit.
    The focus today is my other big money losing short percentagewise which id AAPL. I just shorted another 11 shares at 155.23.
    So now I am short 34 shares total and am sitting on a loss now of $1353 on the total. A poster called Art who I guess is no longer here, urged me to stick with it and I think he was correct, this is a company with a not too rosy future.

    That used up my buying power, otherwise I would short more. Maybe FB has peaked as well.

    The Dow Jones still clinging onto an 18 point gain, by the skin of it's teeth.
     
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  4. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    On the basis of today's FOMC statement, with 13 out of 17 voters believing one or more further rates hikes are appropriate this year, Barclays are projecting one more rate hike this December. USD has strengthened across the board. What will the implications be for stocks, which already seem seriously overvalued?
     
  5. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    December is a million years away now with everything that could happen between now and then. Even if nothing major happens, it will be obvious to everyone that we are entering a serious downturn here. Real estate has topped and credit delinquencies are rising rapidly. The consumer has been tapped out for years but now he is maxed out as well.

    I was down today after being up nicely, after the metals tanked. However, my shorts are looking real good now all of a sudden.

    Today is the bell ringing for the insiders to exit the market. She told them straight out that she is going to contract the money supply.

    It is as clear as when I called the exact end of the bear market on P.ie in 2009

    That was probably the best thread ever on an irish forum. There were some big investors there and it was exciting times

    ISEQ crash deepens - down over 70% - Page 514
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    AAPL : Summary for Apple Inc. - Yahoo Finance

    That is more like it, I wish I was short more.
    AAPL is still worth 792 billion dollars, that is a lot of phones imo. Actually, even if nobody on Earth had a phone, are there a billion people with $792 to buy one. If you look at it that way, simple as it might be, then surely this is tulipmania all over again. Too bad I don't have a spare million dollars here, but for the moment I have to stick with 34 shares short. I will load up more if the market goes my way, on this stock.

    Also silver is now below 17 dollars, unless we have severe deflation, how can it get cheaper. And of course severe deflation would suit me fine and dandy here.

    CHTR : Summary for Charter Communications, Inc. - Yahoo Finance
    This is another turkey that I must short more of as soon as I can.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    iPhone 8: muted reaction and small queues lead to questions over demand

    I hope this article is a harbinger for the future of Apple.
    It really is amazing to drive by an Apple Store. The bloody square footage alone must be costing a fortune in rent. Then you have a ton of people standing around to help customers. They have a lot of cash, but they need a lot of income to cover costs or they will start to seriously eat into that pile.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I guess the answer today is a resounding YES.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Just shorted 9 more shares of HD at 161.48

    I am short a total of 104 shares now. I am hoping the storm related stock rise is over and this and Loews, LOW, have a long way down to fall.
    They are 2 big positions for me and at the moment I am losing 11%and 5% on them
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    As the market grinds up, I am being grinded down. I have had to put in more money, now a total of 61670. My position is worth about 59700 so I am about $2000 down. That is not bad at all considering how the market has gone against me. The market is closed Monday so I am as always optomistic.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Not only is the market open even though it is a holiday here, but I made a trade.

    I just sold short 14 shares of PPZ at $207.8883

    It reports earnings in a few days

    DPZ : Summary for Domino's Pizza Inc - Yahoo Finance


    It looks like I sold it on a pop up and am up slightly already, fingers crossed as always.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    That worked out very well. Too bad I did not have more buying power so that I could have shorted 10000 rater than the modest 14 shares. Plenty more stocks that are set for a fall and hopefully I can get more tomorrow. This run has got to be exhausted and overy extended.
     
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    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    DPZ is down another 4% today, I am up 7% since Monday, $207.60. Too bad I could not have sold short more last Monday. I am still getting squeezed though with the Dow hitting record highs nearly every day for the last 3 weeks. I am feeling better by the day, the market isonly sustained by unfounded optimism. A blast of deflation is coming, I feel it in my water.
     
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  15. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    If Abu Ivanka keeps up his moronicity regarding the DPRK and Iran, the collapse of the stock market is bound to come.
     
  16. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    The market was supposed to fall 3000 points when Abu was elected, instead it rose 6000.
    A decent sized nuclear attack on Korea could well see the dollar having a major rise and send money rushing into dollar denominated assets, ie American stocks.

    From an investing viewpoint, the present situation might be a lot better, I just need to wait till the bubble pops and a deflation hits the market.
     
  17. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Lol. sometimes I think you live on another planet a chara. Well, I suppose Septic Land is another planet to reality.
     
  18. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Investors must deal with reality, not their hopes or expectations. The market is up 6000 points since Abu was elected. That is a fact.
     
  19. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Of course it is - because Abu Ivanka promised to get rid of regulation, cut taxes for the rich, unleash the mother of all infrastructure spending sprees, etc., etc. Trouble is he's delivered on precisely nothing - and now he's threatening to do precisely what he was elected not to do - start more unwinnable wars in places most Americans can't even find on a map.
     
  20. OP
    Youngdan

    Youngdan Moderator Staff Member Moderator Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    It is fascinating, and proving costly, to watch the market rocket past 23000.

    Two things gives be confidence of a top. The bond market is falling today and tomorrow is a huge annerversary, 30 years ago was Black Monday. People will be inclined to take profits and step aside.

    Trump has driven this market up 6000 points, the greatest even rise.