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Hot Brendan Keenan's "Bleak Omens" for Europe!

Discussion in 'Europe' started by Dublin 4, May 18, 2017 at 4:00 PM.

  1. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Posting Legend Political Irish Donator

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    DJ European Morning Briefing

    Dow Jones Newswires , 16 May 2017 12:09
    European Morning Briefing: Stocks to Stutter; Euro Prospects Improve

    Snapshot:
    ========
    Stocks seen flat; EUR/USD 1.0986-89; Bund yield 0.422%; Brent crude $52.00; gold $1234.24
    -Germany’s Merkel Advocates German-French Cooperation in Meeting With Macron
    -U.K. International Trade Secretary: We Are Prepared to Be Free-Trade Champions
    -Researchers Identify Clue Connecting Ransomware Assault to Group Tied to North Korea
    Watch For: Eurozone GDP, foreign trade; Germany ZEW Indicator; U.K. inflation; Italy GDP; IEA oil market report; earnings from easyJet, Vodafone; U.S. earnings from Home Depot, Staples, Urban Outfitters

    Headline News:
    =============
    Angela Merkel said Monday that she was open to changing the European Union’s treaties to strengthen the bloc, voicing a desire to work closely with France as she met with Emmanuel Macron on his first full day in office.
    Ms. Merkel said she and Mr. Macron had agreed to “develop anew” their bilateral relationship and that their cabinet ministers would meet shortly after the French parliamentary election in June. In a sign that she was prepared to discuss far-reaching changes to the EU and the eurozone with Mr. Macron, she said she would be prepared to support changing EU treaties “if it makes sense.”
    “First we will work on what we want to do, and if it then demands a treaty change I, at least, will be ready to do it,” Ms. Merkel said.
    Ms. Merkel said the election of Mr. Macron, who ran on a centrist, pro-EU platform pledging reforms, offered an opportunity to improve the bloc.
    “The French elections, also the Dutch elections, have shown the Germans once more what a treasure Europe is and how important German-French cooperation and friendship is for this treasure,” Ms. Merkel said. “So I believe we are at a very sensitive moment in history that we should now also use to make something of it that will be understood by the people as a strengthening of Europe and a fortification of Europe.”

    The U.K.’s top trade official said that Britain would be a leading advocate for free trade despite its plans to leave the European Union.
    Liam Fox, the U.K.’s international trade secretary, said the Brexit process would give Britain back an independent trade policy for the first time in four decades. But Mr. Fox said the U.K. wasn’t pursuing a policy of isolationism.
    Instead, the U.K.’s departure from the EU political framework would give it more freedom to pursue a free trade agenda, Mr. Fox said.
    Mr. Fox was also critical of other nations for a slowdown in international trade due to rising protectionism, calling members of the Group of Seven nations some of the worst offenders. He didn’t name specific countries.

    Cybersecurity researchers identified a digital clue connecting the global ransomware assault to previous cyberattacks by a group linked to North Korea.
    The link involves a version of the software used in the latest attack, known as WannaCry, that was detected earlier this year and uploaded to an archive for security researchers.
    Neel Mehta, a security researcher at Google, on Monday pointed out similarities between that earlier WannaCry variant and code used in a series of attacks that security specialists have attributed to the Lazarus group.
    Security experts say that hacking group carried out a series of multimillion-dollar online banking thefts as well as the 2014 cyberattacks on Sony Entertainment — attacks they believe North Korea orchestrated.

    Stocks:
    ======
    The rally in European stocks could falter Tuesday, with futures for the DAX and FTSE 100 unchanged, although analysts expect further gains are likely.
    “It’s tough to be anything else other than bullish on risk assets at the moment and while implied volatility is extremely low global equity markets continue to creep higher,” wrote IG’s Chris Weston.
    “The mood on the street still doesn’t feel overly bullish in any way, but look around the markets and we see new highs in the FTSE 100, DAX, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and a new high in the MSCI World index should be in play this week. Emerging markets are flying too and attracting heavy inflows into equity and bond funds,” Mr. Weston added.
    Stock markets across Asia-Pacific lacked direction early Tuesday, with gains for regional energy and mining firms thanks to a jump in commodity prices, while Chinese markets again succumbed to selling pressure.
    After two sessions in the red, Japan’s headline stock index rose and closed in on the key 20000-point level, helped by gains in energy stocks. Elsewhere, a boost from commodity-exposed stocks lifted Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 by 0.2%
    Meanwhile, Chinese markets were markedly lower, after data on Monday disappointed with retail sales and industrial production seeing slower growth in April, while fixed asset investment in the first four months of the year failed to meet expectations, rising just 8.9% compared with the same period the year before.
    The Shanghai Composite Index was last down 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index was off 0.5%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was off 0.3%.
    U.S. stocks rose Monday as a jump in commodities prices boosted shares of energy and mining companies.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh highs.

    Forex:
    =====
    EUR/USD extended its rally in Asia on a weaker dollar and encouraging Eurozone political developments, said CBA.
    Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron pledged to co-operate on a “road map” of pro-growth economic reforms for the European Union while Mr. Macron’s appointment of Edouard Philippe as France’s new prime minister raises the likelihood the new French president will manage to win a majority at the June legislative election. This will ultimately allow him to implement his pro-growth economic reforms in France, said CBA.
    The dollar was hurt Monday by a surge in oil-dependent currencies and disappointing U.S. data. The buck fell 0.5% against the Canadian dollar, 1.3% against the Russian ruble and 0.1% against the Norwegian krone. Meanwhile, a closely watched measure of inflation came in below expectations on Friday, a potential obstacle for the Federal Reserve as it seeks to normalize interest rates. Signs that inflation has firmed would bolster the Fed’s case for raising rates more aggressively.
    Federal-funds futures, used by investors to bet on the U.S. interest-rate outlook, show a 74% chance that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting in June, according to CME Group data. That is down from 83% a week earlier.
    Investors continue to assess the outlook for the Trump administration’s tax-overhaul and stimulus plans, which were expected to bolster the U.S. economy and the dollar.
    “The broader issue for the U.S. dollar is perhaps the hangover from recent developments in Washington which has slowed President Donald Trump’s pro-growth/business agenda,” said analysts at Scotiabank in a research note. ” Getting Washington back on track will help lift the [dollar].”
    The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against 16 others, continued to fall in Asia and was recently at 89.85.

    Bonds:
    =====
    U.S. government bonds pulled back Monday as investors took some chips off the table after the biggest price rally in nearly a month at the end of last week.
    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 2.338%, compared with 2.331% Friday.
    One factor sapping demand for haven bonds: German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party-Christian Democratic Union-prevailed in elections Sunday in North Rhine-Westphalia, the most popular state in Germany. Analysts took it as a sign Ms. Merkel may fare well in the federal elections later this year. The news followed the presidential elections in France, which reduces political anxiety in Europe.

    Energy:
    ======
    Crude oil futures were up in Asia trade, with prices headed closer to U.S. session highs, as expectations that OPEC will extend production cuts until early next year continued to boost trading sentiment.
    “An extension of OPEC and Russia’s oil production cuts for another nine months should put a floor under the oil price in the mid-$40 range as the market inches gradually towards balance,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.
    On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June traded at $49.05 a barrel at 0242 GMT, up $0.20 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.18 to $52.00 a barrel.

    Metals:
    ======
    Gold prices were at their highest level in two weeks in Asia, as some investors looked to safe-haven assets following the recent show of nuclear strength by North Korea and despite the prospect of another rate hike next month from the Federal Reserve.
    “We are still constructive on gold,” said Daniel Hynes, commodities analyst with ANZ Bank. “Once we get through June, the market will warm up to other factors.”
    He noted physical demand in India and China was stronger in April, though coming off low prior-year levels. At 0210 GMT, gold was up 0.3% at $1,234.24/troy ounce, having slid Monday during the U.S. session.
     
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    Dublin 4

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    Dublin 4

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    Dublin 4

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    Dublin 4

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  6. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Posting Legend Political Irish Donator

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    I see that Bloomberg is careful not to mention the elephant in the room - which is the fact that the Euro is 10% overvalued for the needs of French exporters. Macron is determined to keep that millstone around the neck of the French economy.
     
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    Dublin 4

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    Dublin 4

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    Disaster for recession-devastated Greece as IMF and eurozone FAILS to agree funding

    [​IMG]

    Disaster for recession-devastated Greece as IMF and eurozone FAILS to agree funding

    ANOTHER EU BLOW: Austria to hold shock snap election as support for eurosceptics SURGE



    BBC News reporter SLAPPED by woman after ‘grabbing her boob’ during live broadcast


    [​IMG]

    BBC News reporter SLAPPED by woman after ‘grabbing her boob’ during live broadcast

    [​IMG] Nitey nitey Grope-creepz [​IMG]
     
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    Dublin 4

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    Dublin 4

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  11. amsterdemmetje

    amsterdemmetje Well-Known Member Political Irish

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    1. Speaking of black omens just a heads up to ye all because ai work with loads of foreigners everyday and know this kind of stuff if you are working with black lads and they are calling each other the n word it's ok for them but it's not ok for you to call them the n word. As a mark of respect they might call you the n word they always call me that. Even white people call me the white n word, as a mark of respect I think.
     
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    Dublin 4

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  13. Tadhg Gaelach

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    Dow Jones Newswires , 17 May 2017 11:55
    European Morning Briefing: U.S. Politics Force Risk-Off Moves

    Snapshot:
    ========
    Stocks to open lower; EUR/USD 1.1111-14; Bund yield 0.436%; Brent crude $51.21; gold $1242.40
    -White House Turmoil Puts the GOP Agenda at Risk
    -Trump Asked Comey to End Flynn Probe
    -U.N. Security Council Holds Talks After North Korean Missile Launch
    Watch For: Eurozone harmonised CPI; U.K. unemployment; Poland interest rate decision; European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk present a report on the EU’s Brexit summit last month; earnings from ABN AMRO, British Land, SSE; U.S. earnings from Cisco, Target

    Headline News:
    =============
    The latest revelation to buffet the White House — that President Donald Trump allegedly asked then-FBI Director James Comey to drop a probe of his former national security adviser — has prompted some congressional Republicans to call for further investigation.
    Mr. Comey documented the encounter in a memo written shortly after the February meeting, according to two people close to Mr. Comey. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz said he was considering subpoenaing the memo, if it wasn’t made available. Mr. Chaffetz on Tuesday night requested the FBI provide by May 24 all memos, notes, summaries and recordings of communication between Mr. Trump and Mr. Comey in a letter to FBI Acting Director Andrew McCabe. The move was supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan.
    “We need to have all the facts, and it is appropriate for the House Oversight Committee to request this memo,” AshLee Strong, a spokeswoman for Mr. Ryan, said in a statement.
    Mr. Chaffetz insisted the House could get its business done despite the upheaval.
    “The government is always full of crisis — some of this is very self-inflicted by the White House itself — but we still have to be able to pass meaningful legislation and get it to the president’s desk,” Mr. Chaffetz told NBC Tuesday night.
    Other congressional Republicans called on Mr. Comey to deliver a full explanation.
    The series of controversies involving the president has threatened to swamp his legislative agenda on Capitol Hill, with potential hearings and widening investigations siphoning time and energy from plans to overhaul the health-care system and tax code.

    The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday held a closed-door, emergency meeting on North Korea, holding talks on new sanctions in response to the country’s latest ballistic missile test.
    The U.S. and China were negotiating a resolution that would implement new sanctions and tighten existing penalties on Pyongyang, diplomats said. China is North Korea’s main ally at the U.N. and has in the past advocated for direct negotiations rather than economic and military punishment.
    U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that the international community had to send North Korea a “no more” signal and said the U.S. would be willing to talk to North Korea only if the country abandoned its nuclear and missile program.
    “This is not play time. This is serious. These threats are not welcome,” said Ms. Haley, speaking to reporters before the Council meeting.

    Stocks:
    ======
    European stocks face opening losses Wednesday, with DAX futures down 69 points and FTSE 100 futures down 28 points.
    A falling dollar pressured stocks in Japan and cast broader concern over equity markets in the region, as turmoil in Washington continued to raise doubts about the Trump administration’s ability to make progress on policy.
    The Nikkei was recently down 0.4% while S&P 500 futures were 0.5% lower.
    “U.S. dollar weakness has been a key feature of the market landscape over the past 24 hours,” noted Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.
    Australia’s benchmark stock index slid 1% as the country’s largest banks–which carry a great deal of weight in the S&P/ASX 200–dropped nearly 2%. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said a proposed levy on the country’s five biggest banks is “a reasonable requirement” and they can easily afford it.
    In Shanghai, stocks were recently up 0.1%. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Seoul were down slightly.
    Nasdaq notched a fresh record close Tuesday as shares of technology companies climbed in an otherwise downbeat session. The index rose 0.3%, its 33rd record close of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 each fell less than 0.1%.

    Forex:
    =====
    The return of risk-off sentiment in global markets has hit the dollar and given a notable lift to the yen amid political drama in the U.S. and on the Korean peninsula.
    The WSJ Dollar Index has fallen for five straight sessions and has continued to decline, putting it at its lowest level since November in dropping a further 0.1% in Asian trading.
    A series of political blowups in recent days has cast fresh doubt on the pace of potential policy moves by the Trump Administration.
    Buying of yen accelerated in Asian trading, with the dollar skidding toward Y112.50 and hitting a series of session lows Wednesday, versus around Y113.10 in late Tuesday action in New York. Masashi Murata, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo, has put the next target at Y112.12.
    Mr. Murata also said the euro’s ongoing rebound is not supported by strong fundamentals. “I don’t think it is sustainable.” Meanwhile, he doesn’t believe market chatter that the European Central Bank may move towards raising interest rates.
    At 0350 GMT, USD/JPY was 112.42-43, EUR/USD was 1.1111-14 and GBP/USD was 1.2935-37.

    Bonds:
    =====
    U.S. government bonds gained ground Tuesday as uncertainty over the U.S. fiscal policy outlook and disappointing housing data stoked demand for haven assets.
    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 2.329%, compared with 2.338% Monday as political worries continue to circulate in the U.S. Investors are concerned that these worries inject a layer of uncertainty surrounding the timing and details of large fiscal stimulus.

    Energy:
    ======
    Crude oil prices retreated in Asia trade, weighed by renewed concerns that U.S. production is undercutting the global oil cartel’s efforts to put the market back to balance.
    U.S. crude stockpiles likely rose by 882,000 barrels in the week ended May 12, according to industry group American Petroleum Institute. The Wall Street Journal’s survey of 13 analysts, however, estimates a decrease of 2.2 million barrels. Official readings from the Energy Information Administration are due later Wednesday.
    On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June traded at $48.20 a barrel at 0259 GMT, down $0.46 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.44 to $51.21 a barrel.

    Metals:
    ======
    London spot gold prices climbed in Asia on renewed safe haven buying, bringing it close to the levels seen a fortnight ago.
    Gold prices are expected to trade in a range of $1,200-$1,250 per ounce in the near term, said an ABN AMRO report, with prices seen rising later in the year to $1,300/oz. However, expectations of a U.S. rate rise may cap gains until next month. Physical demand in Asia has picked up, but typically demand tends to plateau during the summer months before rising again from August onwards.
    At 0219 GMT, spot gold was trading $5.8 higher at $1,242.40/oz.
     
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    Dublin 4

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