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Hot Brendan Keenan's "Bleak Omens" for Europe!

Discussion in 'Europe' started by Dublin 4, Jan 16, 2016.

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  1. OP
    Dublin 4

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    Dublin 4

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] Nitey nitey - the future aint too britey! [​IMG]
     
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    Dow Jones Newswires, 8 August 2017 03:39
    Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk


    0739 GMT [Dow Jones] The September Bund future contract, currently trading at 163.36, has rebounded above its support and remains supported by the 50-period moving average at 163.16 on a 30-min chart. Moreover, the intraday RSI stands within its buying area between 50 and 70 and confirms the bullish bias. A first target to the upside is therefore set at Aug. 3 top at 163.51. A break above this threshold would open the way to further up move towards 163.75 and towards the previous overlap at 164.00 in extension. Only a break below the strong horizontal support and overlap at 162.89 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at the horizontal support at 162.63 and a second one set at 162.44 in extension. (analysts-europe@tradingcentral.com)

    0737 GMT - India's rural consumption is set to rebound after a deep slumber following normal monsoon rains and higher state-purchase prices for crops, says Motilal Oswal Securities. Farm-loan waivers and higher government spending in rural areas are also expected to boost demand, the firm adds. India's rural-consumption story has stalled the last 3 years amid drought in 2014-5 and anemic growth in state-support prices for crops. Then demonetization interrupted last year's brief recovery. A key beneficiary of rural gains will be autos--especially 2-wheelers and tractors--consumer goods and nonbanking finance companies, says Motilal Oswal. They include Colgate India (500830.BY), has 58% market share in country's rural areas. (debiprasad.nayak@wsj.com)

    0737 GMT [Dow Jones] Currently trading at $1.1815, the euro remains on the upside and is supported by the 30-min moving average at $1.1797 which is turning up. The intraday RSI stands within its buying area between 50 and 70 and confirms the bullish bias. Further advance is therefore expected towards the horizontal resistance at $1.1830 at first. A break above this threshold would open the way to further up move towards $1.1860 and towards the strong horizontal resistance at $1.1890 in extension. Only a break below the horizontal support at $1.1780 would turn the intraday outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at $1.1760 and towards August 4 bottom at $1.1730 in extension. (analysts-europe@tradingcentral.com)

    0715 GMT - Chinese CPI is seen having remained at 1.5% last month even amid higher food prices as there was a widespread heat wave and flooding, according to a median forecast of 13 economists polled by WSJ. In both May and June, CPI came in at that level. Meanwhile, PPI is seen having matched June's 5.5%. The data are due Wednesday. (grace.zhu@wsj.com)

    0635 GMT - The 10-year German government bond driver does have price drivers--it's just that these drivers cancel each other out. Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann says uncertainty regarding the European Central Bank's and the U.S. Federal Reserve's tighter monetary policy are still upside risks for yields, which move inversely to bond prices. But demand outstrips supply, providing support for German debt. Bund yields are quoted at 0.46% in early Tuesday trading, based in Tradeweb data. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com, @tasosvos)

    0533 GMT - Some of the positive effects of India's November cash ban, intended in part to expand the formal economy, may be starting to show. The government says tax revenue is surging as individuals who were operating outside the tax net are coming into the fold. According to latest figures, advance tax deposited by individuals from January-April was 42% higher than a year earlier while the number of individuals filing tax returns jumped 25%. The government is hoping this is a sign of improved compliance, which should boost its coffers and provide more money to spend on development plans. (anant.kala@wsj.com)

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
     
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    [​IMG]



    TUESDAY, AUGUST 8, 2017
    TOP NEWS
    China's July exports, imports weaker than expected, cloud global outlook
    China's exports and imports grew more slowly than expected in July, raising concerns over whether global demand is starting to cool even as major Western central banks consider scaling back their massive stimulus programmes. China's export growth slowed to 7.2 percent in July from a year earlier, the weakest pace since February and cooling from an 11.3 percent rise in June, official data showed. Analysts had expected a 10.9 percent gain. Imports rose 11.0 percent, the slowest growth since December and down from a 17.2 percent rise in the previous month. That also missed expectations of 16.6 percent growth.

    No need for Fed to raise interest rates in near term –Bullard
    The Federal Reserve can leave interest rates where they are for now because inflation is not likely to rise much even if the U.S. job market continues to improve, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said. "The current level of the policy rate is likely to remain appropriate over the near term," Bullard told in Nashville, Tennessee. The PCE price index excluding food and energy is forecast to rise only to 1.8 percent if the U.S. unemployment rate falls to an "unprecedented" 3 percent from the current 4.3 percent, Bullard said. With so little upward pressure on inflation, the Fed does not need to raise rates to slow growth, he said.

    BOJ should dial back stimulus before inflation hits 2 pct - ex-BOJ dep gov Iwata
    The Bank of Japan should dial back its massive stimulus before inflation hits its 2 percent target, a leading candidate to become the next governor said, raising questions about the efficacy of the BOJ's radical approach to snuff out deflation in the world's third-largest economy. Former BOJ Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata criticised the central bank's price forecasts as too optimistic and warned that even hitting 1 percent inflation could be challenging given a recent batch of weak price data. The comments underscored growing concern over the strains the BOJ's prolonged ultra-easy policy is putting on the country's banks and financial market.

    UK retail sales growth slows in July, non-food sales fall – BRC
    British retail sales grew more slowly in July, data published showed, as shoppers cut back on non-essential spending and budgeted for the higher price of food following the Brexit vote. UK retail sales increased by an annual 0.9 percent on a like-for-like basis, which strips out changes in store size, the British Retail Consortium said. That was down from growth of 1.2 percent in June - the highest non-Easter reading of the year thanks to good weather. Total sales in July slowed to show a 1.4 percent rise, in line with the 12-month average.

    Australia business conditions, confidence bloom in July-survey
    A measure of Australian business conditions hit its highest since early 2008 in July as sales and profits stayed strong, while firms turned more confident the purple patch would last for some time yet. National Australia Bank surveyed more than 400 firms to compile its index of business conditions which rose 1 point to +15 in July, triple its long-run average of +5. After lagging behind, the survey's measure of business confidence jumped 4 points to +12 and back to levels seen before the global financial crisis.



    BOJ'S BATTLE WITH DEFLATION
    [​IMG]


    MORNING MEETING


    [font=arial][font=arial][color=#006699][color=#333333][b]JGBS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY

    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS[/b]
    • [/color][/color][/font][/font]
    US Treasury 10s indicated 2.258%, JGB 10s 0.068%, Bund 10s 0.462%
    • US-Japan-Germany respective 2s indicated 1.353%, -0.108%, -0.683%
    • JGBs soften, unable to recover after 30yr auction
    • 30yr auction goes okay, stop 0.88%, avg 0.876%, vs 0.875% in AM
    • Tail 0.4bp, BTC 3.90; vs 0.4bp, 3.62 previously
    • At 150.21, JGB futures off 3 ticks on day, range 150.25/150.19
    • Nikkei on back-foot, 20,076 early to 19,970, at 19,986 off 69 points 0.3%
    • AXJ mixed - HSI +0.1% and TWI above par but other indices off
    • SSEC -0.2%, KOSPI -0.2%, STI -0.3%, ASX -0.8% and NZX50 below par
    • Dailian iron ore off 2.75%, Tokyo and Shanghai rubber down too

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY touch heavy in thin Asia trade as US NFP feel-good effects wear off
    • 110.81 to 110.58, flows few and far between, no fireworks at Tokyo fix
    • Japanese bids on dips towards 110.00, below, offers set pre-111.00, above
    • Little in way of significant nearby option expiries – 111.00 USD490 mln
    • EUR/JPY to-fro between 130.61-81, mostly between 200/100-HMAs at 130.45/76
    • GBP/JPY 144.22-46, AUD/JPY 87.55-83
    • NZD/JPY on back-foot, 87.46 to 87.30 and a fresh trend low, to 81.33 55-DMA
    • NZD/JPY break below 55-DMA targets ascending Ichi daily cloud top at 81.17

    EUR
    • EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.1795 after EUR was best performing major CCY
    • After trading at 1.1792 the EUR/USD tracked higher through the morning session
    • Broad USD weakness and EUR/JPY demand underpinned the price action
    • EUR/USD traded to 1.1824 before sellers reemerged and USD clawed back ground
    • EUR/USD was trading around 1.0810 heading into the afternoon session
    • Minor resistance at former daily support at 1.1830
    • A break above 1.1830 could see post-NFP gap filled towards 1.1870/80
    • German trade data out today followed US JOLTS

    GBP
    • Cable quiet in Asia, slightly better bid, 1.3032-53, familiar range
    • Bids eyed towards 1.3000 and offers towards 1.3100, flows few, far between
    • EUR/GBP 0.9048-58, just below 0.9061 trend high yesterday, bias still up

    Market Briefs
    • BOJ should dial back stimulus before inflation hits 2 pct - ex-BOJ dep gov Iwata
    • UK Jul BRC like-for-like retail sales +0.9% y/y, June +1.2%
    • Total sales +1.4% vs +2.0%, gains on higher food prices, non-food sales
    • China says willing to pay the price for new N.Korea sanctions
    • CN Jul Exports and Imports, +7.2%, +11% vs 11.3%, 17.2%
    • CN Jul Trade balance, +46.74 bln vs 42.77 bln
    • AU NAB Jul Business conditions, 15 vs 14
    • AU Jul Business confidence, 12 vs 9
    • Japan June current account surplus Y934.6 bln, Y814.0 bln eyed, May Y165.4 bln
    • MOF July flows - Japanese buy net Y4.463 trln for-bonds, Y1.1635 trln stocks
    • Net Y2.6457 tln short-term Japanese bills sold, some re-invested, repatriated
    • Foreign investors bought net Y591.3 bln Japanese stocks, Y184.7 bln JGBs
    • Japan Jul outstanding bank loans +3.3% year, rise steady, to Y516.254 tln

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 05:45 CH Jul Unemployment Rate Adj, 3.20% eyed, last 3.20%
    • 06:00 DE Jun Trade Balance SA, 21.00 bln eyed, last 20.30 bln
    • 06:00 DE Jun Exports SA, -0.30% eyed, last 1.40%
    • 06:00 DE Jun Imports SA, 0.20% eyed, last 1.20%

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • 09:00 AT E1.1 bln for 6/30 yr auctions
    • 09:30 UK Stg1.0 bln for 9YI auction
    • 09:35 BE E2.1-2.5 bln for 3-month auction
    • 10:30 ESM E1.5 bln for 3-month auction
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events.

    USD/JPY-Investor bids confirm line in sand at 110.00
    July flow data today confirmed Japanese investor intentions of adding to US and other foreign bond portfolios on dips, as per anecdotal evidence and the MOF's weekly flow series. Japanese investors bought a whopping net Y4.46 tln in foreign bonds last month, with higher-yielding US Treasuries and corporates the biggest purchases by far. USD/JPY began July still on the 110 handle and US 10-year Treasuries were on the move up towards 2.4%. Both have since come off, ensuring decent capital gains for the buyers. USD/JPY sales on the way down allowed these players good hedges. It is thus no surprise that Japanese investors would want to buy USD/JPY anew on the push back down towards 110.00, if only to take off previous hedges. Most Japanese players expect US yields and USD/JPY to head higher into end-2017 and 2018, and the initial move back into USD/JPY seems to have been a no-brainer. Tentative moves back into US bonds will likely be seen again in Aug, albeit in a much smaller way. Activity could pick up after Oct, when the second half of Japan's fiscal year begins and when US yields will hopefully be even more attractive.
     
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    Dow Jones Newswires, 9 August 2017 04:05
    Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk


    0805 GMT - The South African rand is down versus the U.S. dollar, reversing Monday gains, as President Jacob Zuma has survived another no-confidence vote. USD/ZAR is up 0.3% at 13.43. The rand rose at the start of the week given expectations Mr. Zuma's eight-year term will be voted out. ING thinks USD/ZAR should be trading near 12 "based on long-term fair value and the currently benign external conditions." Therefore, given the fact that Mr. Zuma will stay in the role, there is a political risk premium in the rand, ING adds. Commerzbank sees the rand staying volatile, but doesn't expect a collapse. (olga.cotaga@wsj.com; @OlgaCotaga)

    0800 GMT - British American Tobacco offers three euro-denominated bond tranches and a sterling leg in the midst of the so-called summer lull Wednesday, as it looks to finance the acquisition of Reynolds American. The four-tranche offering comes after BAT raised $17.25 billion with eight U.S. dollar-denominated tranches. The well-flagged issue is split between a four-year euro floating-rate note, 6.25- and 12.5-year fixed-rate euro bonds and an 8-year sterling leg. A bond dealer calculates a tighter fair value on all four tranches to be tighter compared to initial price talk.(tasos.vossos@wsj.com, @tasosvos)

    0758 GMT [Dow Jones] Currently trading at 149.55, the French September OAT contract has rebounded above its support at 149.30, and stands above the 50-period moving average at 149.54 on a 30-min chart. Furthermore, the 30-min RSI stands within its buying area between 50 and 70 and confirms the bullish bias. As a consequence, further advance is expected with a first target set at the horizontal resistance at 149.74. The upside breakout of this threshold will open the way to further rise towards August 3 top at 149.98 and towards the horizontal resistance and overlap at 150.35. Only a downside breakout of the strong horizontal support at 149.30 would invalidate this bullish scenario. In this case, a bearish acceleration towards the horizontal support at 148.89 and towards 148.56 would be in the cards. (analysts-europe@tradingcentral.com)

    0756 GMT [Dow Jones] Currently trading at GBP 0.9023, the euro is under pressure below the horizontal resistance at GBP 0.9065 and stands below the 50-period moving average at 0.9052 on a 30-minutes chart. Furthermore, the intraday RSI remains within its selling area between 50 and 30 and confirms the bearish bias. Thus, as long as GBP 0.9065 holds as a resistance, further weakness is likely towards the horizontal support at GBP 0.9020 at first and towards August 4 bottom at GBP 0.8995 in extension. A third target is set at the strong horizontal support at GBP 0.8970. Only a rebound above the horizontal resistance at GBP 0.9065 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at yesterday's top at GBP 0.9085 and a second one set at GBP 0.9100. (analysts-europe@tradingcentral.com)

    0641 GMT - Geopolitics should support German government bonds Wednesday as investors rush to safe assets after U.S. President Donald Trump warned North Korea that it will face "fire and fury" if it keeps threatening the U.S. and North Korean state media say the military is examining a strike around the U.S. Territory of Guam. Still, investors should use strength in German government bonds amid "rising war rhetoric" early Wednesday to sell, says Commerzbank strategist Christoph Rieger. Yields on 10-year bunds drop 1.3 bps to 0.46% in early trading. Yields drop when bond prices rise. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com, @tasosvos)

    0621 GMT - Japanese stocks finished off session lows but still logged their worst session since late March while the Nikkei finished at its lowest level since the end of May. The index fell 1.3% to 19738.71 amid fresh worries about the US and North Korea, concerns which sent the dollar back below Y110. That risk-off sentiment also brought buyers to JGBs, with yields widely falling. The 10-year eased a half-basis point to 0.06% while the 40 dropped 1.5bp to 1.075%. (suryatapa.bhattacharya@wsj.com; @SuryatapaB)

    0607 GMT - South Korea's tighter mortgage rules, possibly cooling the property market, and corporate restructurings will likely slow domestic credit growth further and keep the Bank of Korea on ice, says Nomura. It sees GDP growth slowing next year amid a projected drop in construction investment and household debt deleveraging. The government has recently tightened loan limits for homebuyers in speculative areas and raised capital-gain taxes on multiple-home owners to rein in speculators. Nomura doesn't anticipate the Bank of Korea starting to raise interest rates for another year. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com; @kwanwoo)

    0523 GMT - With Japan's core CPI still hovering at 0.4%, far from the government's 2% inflation target, could the government reset that inflation goal? Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan's new economy minister, signals that a revision isn't on his immediate agenda, telling reporters "we're not in a situation where aiming for 2% inflation would pose a negative impact on the daily livelihoods of the people." The veteran lawmaker and a Harvard Kennedy School graduate who took the post as a part of last week's cabinet reshuffle, emphasized that his team will push for boosting productivity and minimum wages. (yoko.kubota@wsj.com)

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
     
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    [​IMG]



    WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 9, 2017
    TOP NEWS
    Steady China factory inflation a boon for industrial profits, economic growth
    China's factory price inflation held steady in July in a positive sign for industrial output and profits for the third quarter, even though a government-led deleveraging drive is expected to cool earnings and economic growth by year-end. The producer price index rose 5.5 percent last month from a year earlier, unchanged from June, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected producer prices to hold steady for a third straight month at 5.5 percent.

    Japan's econ minister pledges to stick to primary budget fiscal discipline target
    Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said he would do his utmost to help the government achieve its fiscal discipline target of returning to a primary surplus in fiscal year 2020. Motegi, in a group interview with reporters, said he wanted to return to a primary surplus while simultaneously lowering the ratio of outstanding debt to gross domestic product. Motegi said he placed equal priority on fiscal discipline and economic growth.

    U.S. job openings at record high; labor market tightening
    U.S. job openings jumped to a record high in June, outpacing hiring, latest indication that companies are having trouble finding qualified workers. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Labor Department also underscored labor market strength that will likely encourage the Federal Reserve to continue tightening monetary policy despite benign inflation and concerns about consumer spending. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased by 461,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.2 million.

    REUTERS SUMMIT-Mexico's Guajardo sees 60 pct chance of ending NAFTA talks this year
    Mexico's economy minister sees a 60 percent probability that talks starting next week to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement will be wrapped up by a soft deadline for the end of the year, he said in an interview. Ildefonso Guajardo, who will take part in the first round of NAFTA talks in Washington starting on Aug. 16, said it was important to meet the ambitious timeline to sign a new deal before Mexico's next president takes office at the end of 2018.


    COLUMN

    A decade on, ECB's bold credit crunch fix looks quaint
    Ten years ago to the day, the European Central Bank pumped 95 billion euros into the banking system to prevent it from seizing up, marking the start of the global credit crisis. At the time it was the biggest ever injection of funds into financial markets and probably the most stunning single central bank action to date. It was also the first step taken by any major authority to tackle the unfolding credit crunch. It was a bold and decisive step which pointed to a nimble, flexible and forward-looking central bank. Yet it was also a conventional move and one that wasn't followed up quickly enough with other measures.


    GRAPHIC
    Ten-years from global financial crisis: a decade in charts
    Ten years ago on Wednesday marked the start for many observers of the global financial crisis - a series of rolling credit shocks and bank crashes that led to the deepest world recession for a generation and a decade of slow growth and painful repair. On Aug. 9, 2007, the European Central Bank flooded its money markets with billions of euros of emergency cash to prevent a seizure in the European banking system after France's BNP Paribas became the latest to shut down investment funds hobbled by a collapse of U.S. mortgage and asset-backed bond markets.



    CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS
    [​IMG]


    MORNING MEETING


    [font=arial][font=arial][color=#006699][color=#333333][b]Nikkei off as US, N Korea up ante

    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS[/b]
    • [/color][/color][/font][/font]
    Nikkei off large fresh NoKorea-related tensions, gap down open
    • From 19,960 early high to 19,660, towards ascending 200-DMA at 19,622
    • Most AXJ bourses off too albeit to smaller extents
    • SSEC -0.2%, HSI -0.8%, KOSPI -0.9%, STI -0.1%, TWI -0.9%, NZX50 -0.2%
    • ASX outlier, currently up 0.5%
    • US Treasury 10s indicated 2.250%, JGB 10s 0.056%, Bund 10s 0.463%
    • US-Japan-Germany respective 2s indicated 1.345%, -0.113%, -0.674%
    • Compared to magnitude of Nikkei selloff, JGB gains limited
    • At 150.32, futures up 10 ticks on day, range 150.35/150.25
    • Good BoJ JGB buy op results help too
    • Tokyo and Shanghai rubber up large on day

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY and JPY crosses all off large in Asia on NoKorea threat to nuke Guam
    • Players scramble to take off short JPY positions, move into cash, safe havens
    • US Treasury yields soggy on good demand, 10s indicated 2.250% currently
    • USD/JPY from 110.37 to 109.74, as high as 110.83 yesterday
    • Stops tripped on breaks below 110.00, 109.85, Japan bids cushion fall
    • Japanese investor bids trail down, support especially @109.50, pre-109.00
    • Option expiries - 109.75-80 USD682 mln, 110.00 849 mln, 110.35-50 847 mln
    • EUR/JPY from 130.81 high yesterday, 129.71 early Asia today to 128.71
    • Recent low just below 128.50 low July 13, 128.00-area next support
    • GBP/JPY through recent 144.00–area low yesterday, today 143.40 to 142.38
    • Ascending Ichi daily cloud and 100-DMA pierced, towards 141.86 200-DMA
    • AUD/JPY 87.32 to 86.29, near 86.37 55-DMA, support 85.60-70, 85.66 July 5 low
    • NZD/JPY from 80.88 to 80.23, 81.57 high yesterday, CAD/JPY 87.15 to 86.41

    EUR
    • EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.1750 after completing a bearish outside day
    • EUR/USD moved up to 1.1764 in early Asia when USD/JPY led USD lower
    • It reversed lower later in the morning when EUR/JPY fell sharply
    • EUR/USD fell from 129.71 to 128.71 while EUR/USD traded down to 1.1718
    • EUR/USD bids at 1.1715 held and it drifted back to 1.1735 into the afternoon
    • Focus in Asia was on rising tensions between US and N Korea
    • EUR/USD reacted both ways to the concerns, but EUR/JPY remained vulnerable
    • Price action in EUR/USD suggests S/T top is in place and correction underway
    • A break below 1.1710 targets the 21-day MA at 1.1665

    GBP
    • Cable in holding pattern in Asia, 1.2970-94, new range top 1.3000
    • Option expiries in area working as tether, total GBP622 mln 1.2970-1.3000
    • Support around 1.3850, now flat 55-DMA at 1.2949, 55-WMA 1.2982, pivot
    • EUR/GBP touch soggy after surge to 0.9087 fresh trend high o/n
    • Asia 0.9055 to 0.9029, profit-taking by longs cited, 0.9000 support

    Market Briefs
    • N.Korea considers missile strike on Guam after Trump's 'fire and fury" warning
    • EconMin Motegi - Looking to stick to primary budget fiscal discipline
    • Discipline as important as economic growth, CPI only key indicator
    • Japan's heavy industries take hit from flagging big projects -Nikkei
    • Japan Jul money supply M2 +4.0% y/y, M3 +3.4%, broadest liquidity +3.4%
    • CN Jul PPI y/y 5.5% vs 5.5%
    • CN Jul CPI, 1.4% vs 1.5% y/y, 0.1% vs -0.2% m/m
    • AU Aug Consumer Sentiment, -1.2% vs 0.4%
    • AU Jun Housing finance, +0.5% vs 1.0%, rvsd +1.1%

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 08:00 IT Jun Industrial Output SA, 0.20% m/m, 3.40% y/y eyed; last 0.70%, 2.80%

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • 09:10 GR E875 mln for 13-week auction
    • 09:30 DE E4.0 bln for 5 yr auction
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events.

    RBNZ-Status-quo on OCR, parting shot at kiwi
    Rewind to May just before the RBNZ finalized their last MPS and most market pundits were looking for the central bank to bring forward the timing of the next OCR hike. Prior guidance contained in the February MPS had the RBNZ sitting tight till Q1 2020. In the end they opted not to change things. Fast forward to Aug and after downside Q1 GDP, Q2 CPI and Q2 employment misses more than a few are tipping that the timing of the next OCR hike will be pushed-out. As was the case in May, Gov Wheeler and co are likely to again disappoint by maintaining the status-quo on their OCR forward guidance. With his 5-yr term ending on 26 Sep, the Governor is also very keen to make the transition to Dep Gov Spencer as interim Gov, as seamless as possible. That being said, it probably won’t stop him from taking a parting shot at knocking the kiwi off its elevated perch.


     
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