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Hot Brendan Keenan's "Bleak Omens" for Europe!

Discussion in 'Europe' started by Dublin 4, Nov 20, 2017 at 5:00 AM.

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    Dublin 4

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    Dow Jones Symphony - Home
    Dow Jones Newswires, 13 Nov 2017 03:50 EST
    Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk



    0849 GMT [Dow Jones] The Bank of Japan needs to adjust its extraordinary easing policies before it hits its goal of 2% inflation, says the head of Mizuho Financial Group. Chief Executive Yasuhiro Sato says both U.S. and European central banks took steps to reduce bond buying before achieving 2% inflation. He says some developed economies may be experiencing chronic slow inflation despite near full employment. The BOJ's massive bond-buying program has been depressing lending margins for Japanese banks. Sato says, though, it would be still necessary for the BOJ to maintain a low interest rate policy.(kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)


    0828 GMT - India's consumer inflation data due out later Monday is likely to show the headline print holding steady for the second consecutive month at 3.3% from a year earlier in October, says DBS. Food costs were higher due to higher prices of vegetables while a fall in prices of pulses slowed. This, however, was offset by lower transportation costs on the back of a cut in factory-gate taxes. At the forecast rate, inflation would be modestly below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% long-term target, but a rate cut at the central bank's next policy review in December is still unlikely because of firmer core price pressures, higher oil prices and policy normalization by global central banks, DBS adds. (anant.kala@wsj.com)

    0831 GMT - [Dow Jones] Indian telecom Reliance Communications has put its bondholders in a quandary by missing an interest payment last week on its $300 million bonds that mature in 2020. The seven-day grace period on the $9.75 million interest payment expires today and it said last week it isn't paying for the "time being" given its ongoing debt restructuring plan. These bonds are mostly held by retail investors. The company, which has about $7 billion debt outstanding, also missed payments on two rupee-denominated bonds earlier this month. The 2020 bonds have fallen to 35.97 cents on the dollar, yielding 50%. (manju.dalal@wsj.com)

    0823 GMT - The Swedish FSA Board will announce its decision on enhanced mortgage amortisation rules at a press conference Monday, notes Danske Bank. "We think that decisions that potentially amplify downside risks to the housing market could weigh further on the [Swedish krona] while a decision not to go ahead with the amortisation rule could lend some support to the SEK." Key resistance area for EUR/SEK is still around 9.80, it adds. EUR/SEK trades at 9.7582. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

    0815 GMT - Italy's upcoming launch of new November 2023 BTP Italia, a retail-oriented bond indexed to domestic inflation, offers good opportunities to investors to diversify their portfolios, say UniCredit rates strategists. After the strong tightening in the Italian BTP-German bund spreads of late, "seeking some diversification appears to be reasonable," they say. The rates strategists add that the new bond looks attractive relative to Italy's nominal yield curve. Subscriptions for retail investors for the November 2023 BTP Italia run from Monday to Wednesday, while institutional investors can subscribe for it on Thursday. (emese.bartha@wsj.com; @EmeseBartha)

    0809 GMT - Swiss telecom Swisscom looks set to issue a further CHF1.5 billion of bonds in various tenors over the next 12 months to re-finance all its maturing liabilities, Vontobel analyst Marc Schulthess says in a note. This will add to the pre-financing of upcoming maturities that has already taken place. The liabilities include domestic bonds, Eurobonds, Swiss and foreign private placements, as well as bank loans. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)

    0804 GMT - Sterling falls after reports that 40 Conservative Party ministers agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in the Prime Minister Theresa May. GBP/USD is down 0.3% at 1.3094 and EUR/GBP is up 0.33% at 0.8891. "While this remains short of the 48 votes needed to force a new leadership, it still creates much frustration amongst investors seeking clarity on Brexit negotiations," says FXTM. The pound is likely to breach the support level of 1.3024, FXTM says. "With May's position being potentially at risk and no significant progress after six rounds of talks with EU, sterling may come under increased pressure in the next couple of days," the broker adds. (olga.cotaga@wsj.com; @OlgaCotaga)

    0800 GMT - Some investors may be cautious in Monday's government bond auction in Italy, wary of potential risks related to next year's Italian elections, says KBC Bank. Italy's treasury has a total of EUR4.5 billion to EUR6 billion on offer on Monday in fixed-rate bonds, known as BTPs, dated October 2020, November 2024 and September 2033. (emese.bartha@wsj.com; @EmeseBartha)

    0800 GMT - Even though ING strategists have a "bearish bias" on 10-year German government bonds, they are not too convinced yields will rise above 0.5% before January. Recent selling in bonds has boosted yields -- which rise when bond prices drop - to 0.4% from 0.3% within just three trading sessions. Bund yields have tested the 0.5% level several times in 2017 but, with the exception of July, they have failed to break through. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)

    0759 GMT - Government bond supply in the eurozone may be as high as EUR37 billion this week, an amount which would mark the highest weekly volume this year, says Alessandro Giongo, fixed income strategist at UniCredit. Issuance at auctions from Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Spain and France will total EUR28 billion to EUR29 billion, a number that itself is significantly above the year-to-date weekly average. Mr. Giongo expects an additional EUR5 billion to EUR8 billion issuance via Italy's launch of BTP Italia, a retail-oriented bond indexed to domestic inflation. Retail subscriptions for BTP Italia run from Monday to Wednesday, while institutional investors can subscribe in the early hours of Thursday. (emese.bartha@wsj.com; @EmeseBartha)

    0750 GMT - German government bonds look vulnerable to further losses and Commerzbank recommends tactical short positions so long as 10-year yields, which move inversely to bond prices, remain below 0.5%. Bund yields have jumped from just over 0.3% to 0.4% in the past three trading sessions. The bond market's focus this week should be on two major financial conferences, Euro Finance Week and the European Central Bank's "Communication Challenges for Policy Effectiveness, Accountability and Reputation" forum, where the heads of all major central banks will make an appearance. Bund yields are quoted at 0.405% early Monday, according to Tradeweb. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)

    0741 GMT - India will overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy in 10 years, as rising saving and investment rates help sustain 7%-plus annual economic growth, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch. A continued decline in lending rates and increasing income will also help stoke demand, making the South Asian economy stand out among the BRIC group of developing economies, it says. At the same time, structural factors will likely weigh on growth in the group's other economies (Brazil, Russia and China), the firm adds. (anant.kala@wsj.com)

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
     
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    [​IMG]



    MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2017


    TOP NEWS

    Fed's Harker stands by call for rate hike next month
    A Federal Reserve official said he expects to back an interest rate hike next month despite caution over low-inflation, as U.S. central bank policy needs to be positioned to deal with future economic shocks. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he has "lightly penciled in" a December rate hike. Harker said he expects the Fed to raise rates three times next year as long as inflation remains on track, and the projected tightening could take policy to what he would describe as a neutral stance. Harker said the Fed must continue normalizing policy as the economy is "more or less at full strength" and there remains "very little slack" in the labour market.

    UK shoppers cut spending by most in more than 4 years – Visa
    British shoppers reined in their spending by the most in more than four years in October, according to a survey by payments company Visa which added to other signs that the squeeze on incomes is hitting the high street. Consumer spending fell by 2.0 percent in October compared with the same month last year, Visa said, based on its credit and debit card data. Meanwhile, the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development said its gauge of pay intentions for the private and public sector in the UK rose 2 percent in the latest quarter from 1 percent previously.

    U.S. House will reject total elimination of state and local tax deductions –Brady
    The head of the House of Representatives' tax-writing committee said on Sunday he would not accept elimination of a federal deduction for state and local taxes, opposing a proposal from Senate Republicans that would hike taxes for some middle class Americans. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady said he guaranteed the deduction would not be entirely scrapped in a final tax bill that emerges from dueling plans already unveiled by Republicans in the House and the Senate. The House bill would repeal state and local tax deduction only for state and local income and sales taxes, but preserve it for property tax up to $10,000 a year.


    Britain won't offer a new figure on Brexit bill to unlock talks – minister
    Britain will not offer a figure or a formula for how much it believes it owes the European Union, Brexit minister David Davis said on Sunday, after the EU demanded that London spell out its approach to the final bill to unblock talks. Britain may miss a December deadline to move the talks to a discussion of future trade ties, which businesses say is vital for them to make investment decisions. Both sides are frustrated by the lack of progress, and last week the EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, said Britain had two weeks to spell out how far it would "honour its obligations" to break the deadlock. Prime Minister Theresa May says she cannot offer a figure for the financial settlement until her government knows what the future relationship will be.

    Japan Oct wholesale prices rise 3.4 pct yr/yr
    Japanese wholesale prices rose 3.4 percent in the year to October, Bank of Japan data showed. The rise in the corporate goods price index compares with the median market forecast for a 3.1 percent annual increase and follows a 3.1 percent annual increase in September. Overall final goods prices rose 1.8 percent from a year earlier. Domestic final goods prices, which loosely track the consumer price index, rose 0.8 percent from a year earlier.



    U.S. PCE PRICE INDEX AND THE FED FUNDS TARGET RATE
    [​IMG]



    MORNING MEETING


    JGBS QUIET, CABLE HIT ON MAY LEADERSHIP WORRIES

    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    • US Treasury 10s indicated 2.389%, JGB 10s 0.047%, Bund 10s 0.405%
    • US-Japan-Germany respective 2s indicated 1.660%, -0.171%, -0.747%
    • Quiet start to week for JGBs, with no BoJ ops, MoF auctions
    • Weaker Bunds, US Treasuries weigh on JGBs
    • JGB futures in narrow 150.75/150.69 range
    • At 150.71, futures off 13 ticks on day
    • Nikkei lower but holding @22.5k, range 22,474-607
    • At 22,537, index off 144 points or 0.6% on day, some players still caught long
    • AXJ mixed but moves small, SSEC +0.3%, HSI +0.3%, STI and NZX50 above par
    • KOSPI -0.4%, ASX -0.2% and TWI below par
    • Dalian iron ore +1.3%, Tokyo rubber +1.9%, Shanghai rubber +2.2%

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY, JPY crosses in stasis, USD/JPY post-Tokyo fix range 10-ticks
    • Broader, USD/JPY range for session 113.49-71, post-fix 60-70 if that
    • Bids below from @113.25, trail down, large @113.00, also option expiries
    • 112.95-113.15 total USD1.3 yards today, tomorrow 114.00-05 USD1.4 yards
    • Solid standing offers at 113.90, 113.95, 114.00, some stops above latter
    • Given lack of JPY moves, some Tokyo players move into Bitcoin
    • EUR/JPY shadows USD/JPY, Asia 132.33-59, support from 200-HMA at 132.33
    • Back above 132.27 ascending 55-DMA, daily cloud top 132.17
    • Some option expiries today below at 133.00 strike, E323 mln
    • GBP/JPY steady on daily basis despite negative UK news, 148.95-149.80
    • AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY quiet, 86.85-87.07 and 78.59-73 ranges, respectively

    EUR
    • EUR/USD, EUR complex in stasis again in Asia, consolidation, quiet
    • EUR/USD Asia 1.1645-70, pivoting both sides of 1.1622 flat Ichi daily tenkan
    • Option expiries of less import, today 1.1600-05 E532 mln, 1.1625-75 E542 mln
    • Option expiries tomorrow 1.1600-30, 1.1650-75 too but of little consequence
    • 1.1550-1.1700 range in place since October 27 still
    • Back above 132.27 ascending 55-DMA, daily cloud top 132.17
    • Some option expiries today below at 133.00 strike, E323 mln
    • EUR/GBP better bid, Asia 0.8841 to 0.8890, UK PM May to-do to blame
    • Weekend reports suggest May support within Tory Party eroding fast
    • EUR/CHF holds bid after leg up Friday, Asia quiet, 1.1613-22

    GBP
    • Cable down from 1.3198 to 1.3108 early on negative weekend UK news
    • That said, GBP/USD still well within recent 1.3050-1.3300 core range
    • Support from 1.3111 ascending 100-DMA, resistance from 1.3221 ascending 55-DMA
    • EUR/GBP up a leg and GBP/JPY soggy but latter also still within recent range

    CHF
    • USD/CHF touch better bid in Asia on higher US yields, 0.9957-77
    • In slow ratchet up from 0.9926 low Friday, resistance from 0.9976 100-HMA
    • 200-HMA above at 0.9988, 1.0039 high October 27, heavy 1.0000+

    Market Briefs
    • Britain won't offer a new figure on Brexit bill to unlock talks - minister
    • Forty UK Tory lawmakers ready to oust May - Sunday Times
    • Outlook for UK pay growth improves, but only a little - CIPD
    • UK shoppers cut spending by most in more than 4 years - Visa
    • Harker eyes inflation, stands by Fed rate hike next month
    • Gala glitz masks Asia's tensions as Trump winds up tour
    • U.S. House will reject total elimination of state and local tax deductions -Brady
    • JP Oct Corp Goods Price m/m, y/y, 0.3%, 3.4% vs 0.2%, 3.0%, f'cast 0.1%, 3.1%
    • BoJ Nakata - Fed policies won't have direct linkage to BoJ steps.
    • Tokyo eyes tax cuts to emerge as Asia's top financial hub - Nikkei
    • Japan's cash-rich companies to spend more on M&A, not wages - Rtrs poll
    • RBA's Debelle: no shock on horizon that could force RBA to materially raise rates
    • Spanish PM, in Catalonia, calls for big turnout at December election
    • Merkel urges compromises as coalition talks enter final stretch

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • No significant data

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • N/A - BoJ's Kuroda speaks in Switzerland
    • 08:00 EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting - Brussels
    • 09:00 ECB's Constancio speaks at Euro finance Week - Frankfurt
    • 16:30 France's Le Maire speaks at a conference - Paris
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events

    Week Ahead-US tax reform, central bank speakers
    Markets will continue to watch the debate over tax reform in Washington DC, with President Trump due to head back to the US from Asia early in the week. There are no major central bank decisions, but plenty of speakers, starting with Philly Fed President Harker (2017 voter) on 'Fed balance sheet normalisation' in Tokyo Mon; ECB Vice President Constancio gives the keynote speech at a conference in Frankfurt and BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks in Switzerland. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen, ECB President Draghi, Kuroda and BOE Governor Carney all speak at an ECB conference on central bank communication, where Chicago Fed President Evans (2017 voter) also participates in a panel discussion, while Boston Fed President Bostic (2018 voter) is due to speak in Alabama. On Wednesday ECB Chief Economist Praet speaks at the ECB conference and the Fed's Evans in London. on Thursday, Carney, Haldane and Broadbent speak at the BOE Future Forum; Fed Governor Brainard and Cleveland Fed President Mester (2018 voter) are both due to give speeches, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan (2017 voter) participates in a moderated Q&A in Houston. To end the week, Draghi, Bundesbank President Weidmann and Deutsche Bank CEO Cryan speak at a banking conference in Frankfurt.

    Week Ahead-US, EZ IP & CPI; EZ, Japan GDP; China data
    This week's busy data calendar only kicks off on Tuesday, with the Oct NAB business survey in Australia, followed by China's Oct industrial production, retail sales and year-to-date fixed asset investment. In Europe, Germany has Q3 flash GDP a few hours ahead of the euro zone measure; the German Nov ZEW survey and EZ Sept IP are also due, while the US has Oct PPI. Wednesday begins with Japan's Q3 GDP, followed by Australia's Q3 wage price index. The UK releases employment data, the euro zone has Sept trade data and the US has the widely watched CPI and retail sales for Oct, as well as the Nov NY Fed manufacturing index. On Thursday, Australia's jobs data are due, followed by UK retail sales and EZ final inflation - all for Oct. The US has weekly jobless claims, Oct IP, and the Nov Philly Fed and NAHB housing index. Friday brings EZ Sept current account data, US Oct building permits and housing starts, and Canada's Oct CPI. China's Oct lending data are also expected over the course of the week and house prices are due on Sat.
     
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    Well I'd Like to See This Kind of Unity in Ireland.
     
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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG] Nitey nitey - the Nation States are gonna Muttherfukkin bite ye! [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

     
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2017


    TOP NEWS

    China's economy cools as gov't curbs hit factories, property and retailers
    China's economy cooled further last month, with industrial output, fixed asset investment and retail sales missing expectations as the government extended a crackdown on debt risks and factory pollution. Data pointed to moderating growth over the next few quarters as credit expansion slows, with year-on-year industrial output gain of 6.2 percent in October missing analysts' estimates of a 6.3 percent rise. Fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 7.3 percent in the January-October period, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Separately, China’s property sales by floor area fell by 6.0 percent in October from a year earlier, compared with a 1.5 percent decline in September, according to Reuters calculations.

    POLL-Japan wages seen rising 2-2.5 pct in spring, below Abe's target
    Japanese wages will rise by 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent at next spring's annual negotiations, falling short of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's goal of 3 percent, economists polled by Reuters predicted. This year, major Japanese companies -- which negotiate with labour unions every spring to agree on a wage hike -- raised pay an average 1.98 percent, according to Rengo, Japan's biggest labour federation. Economists projected the economy would grow 1.6 percent for the fiscal year through March and 1.1 percent over the next year, unchanged from the last monthly survey. The poll showed the core consumer price index was expected to average 0.6 percent this fiscal year and 0.8 percent the next.

    Risks ahead for U.S. tax push as disputes linger, Trump returns
    Congressional Republicans pushed ahead on Monday on a U.S. tax code overhaul as a Senate panel considered the issue, but risks lay ahead with major intraparty disputes unsettled and President Donald Trump returning soon from Asia as the debate heats up. While overseas at a leaders conference, Trump tweeted some tax bill suggestions early on Monday that were starkly different from the two Republican plans being considered in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. He called on lawmakers to add a highly risky provision to their tax effort: repealing the individual mandate included in the 2010 Obamacare health insurance law that requires Americans to have health coverage or pay a tax to Washington.


    Greece to distribute 1.4 bln euros to citizens hit by austerity
    Greece will distribute 1.4 billion euros as a social dividend to pensioners and others hit hard by the country's austerity programmes, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Monday. The money is available because the country has beaten its 2017 bailout target for a primary surplus - which excludes debt servicing costs - of 1.75 percent of gross economic output, he said. Tsipras said about 720 million euros would be distributed by mid-December to 3.4 million Greeks as a one-off, tax-free benefit, based on income and wealth criteria and household size. Another 315 million euros would be directed to pensioners, he said, to compensate them for "unfair" health contribution payments in 2012-2016.

    U.S. inflation expectations edge up -NY Fed survey
    U.S. inflation expectations edged up again in October, touching their highest level in six months, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey that could spell some relief for central bankers looking for hints of price pressure. The survey of consumer expectations showed the one-year-ahead measure was 2.61 percent in October, its second monthly rise. The three-year-ahead expectation was 2.81 percent, slightly up from the previous month and also at the highest level since April.



    CHINA GDP AND FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT
    [​IMG]



    MORNING MEETING


    JGB FUTURES RANGEBOUND, CURVE STEEPER

    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    • US Treasury 10s indicated 2.406%, JGB 10s 0.051%
    • JGB curve steepens, 2 steady, long-end bonds still heavy
    • 5yr auction as expected, stop -0.105%, BTC 4.19, tail 0.2bp, last 4.24/zero
    • JGB futures move in narrow range without clear direction
    • At 150.71, futures unch on day, range 150.75/150.63
    • Nikkei at 22,501 +0.54%, SSEC -0.45%, HSI +0.1%, STI -0.54%, Kospi -0.26%
    • JKSE and KLSE both flat, NZX50 +0.4%, ASX200 as regions laggard -0.9%
    • Dalian iron ore +1.0%, LME copper-0.1%, gold -0.1%,light crude -0.25%

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY trades a narrow 113.52/74 range in Asia Tuesday
    • Nikkei opened down 0.2%, moved into positive territory during the morning
    • Nikkei last up 0.5%, but USD/JPY not paying attention
    • Support for USD/JPY at 113.19 Kijun line and resistance at 113.91 Tenkan
    • JPY crosses mostly flat, AUD/JPY a tad higher on NAB business conditions
    • EUR/JPY also slightly higher, trades a range of 132.49/71

    EUR
    • EUR/USD only manages a range of 1.1662/76 in Asia
    • Still struggling to close back above the SHS neckline at 1.1670
    • A break of the neckline targets a move to the 100 DMA at 1.1732
    • But downside limited by rising bund yields, strong data
    • Support at 1.1632 10 DMA and 1.1623 Monday low

    GBP
    • Fraction firmer in Asia - closed -0.6% on political/Brexit uncertainty
    • Tight 1.3114/1.3129 Asian range - GBP sidelined with little interest
    • Neutral momentum studies, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs crest, 2nd week of consolidation
    • Familiar levels - Nov 1.3040/1.3321 range holds - close outside directional
    • 1.3150 650M strike then 1.3198 Asian high first resistance
    • London 1.3063 low then 1.3040 Nov base initial support
    • UK inflation leads data - polls - CPI y/y +3.1%

    CHF
    • Tight 99.59/99.68 USD/CHF range in Asia, EUR/CHF 1.1622/1.1630
    • No CHF specific news - European currencies sidelined in Asia

    Market Briefs
    • Weaker than ever, May faces test in UK parliament over Brexit plans
    • British government introduces budget for Northern Ireland
    • CN Oct Industrial Output y/y, 6.2% vs 6.6%, f' cast 6.3%
    • CN Oct Retail Sales y/y, 10.0% vs 10.3%, f’ cast 10.4%
    • CN Oct Urban Investment (ytd) y/y, 7.3% vs 7.5%, f'cast 7.4%
    • China property investment growth cools in Oct, sales decline accelerates
    • Eighth Australian lawmaker falls in citizenship crisis
    • AU Oct NAB Business Conditions 21 vs 14
    • AU Oct NAB Business Confidence 8 vs 7
    • Japan wages seen rising 2-2.5 pct in spring, below Abe's target - Rtrs poll
    • Risks ahead for U.S. tax push as disputes linger, Trump returns
    • U.S. Senate Republicans ask Moore to withdraw as new accuser steps forward

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 07:00 DE Q3 GDP Flash q/q, SA, y/y, NSA, f'cast 0.6%, 2.3% 0.6%, 0.8% last
    • 07:00 DE Oct HICP Final y/y, f'cast 1.5%, 1.5% last
    • 09:30 GB Oct CPI m/m, y/y, f'cast 0.2%, 3.1%, 0.3%, 3.0% last
    • 10:00 EZ Q3 GDP Flash Estimate q/q, y/y, f'cast 0.6%, 2.5%, 0.6%, 2.5% last
    • 10:00 EZ Industrial Production m/m, y/y, f'cast -0.6%, 3.2%, 1.4%, 3.8% last
    • 10:00 DE Nov ZEW Economic Sentiment f'cast 20.0, 17.6 last
    • 10:00 DE Nov ZEW Current Conditions f'cast 88.0, 87.0 last

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • N/A EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting
    • 08:05 Fed's Yellen and Evans, ECB's Draghi, BoJ's Kuroda,
    • BoE's Carney are set to speak at ECB Conference - Frankfurt
    • 13:15 Fed's Bullard presents on US economy - Louisville
    • 15:30 BoE's Cunliffe speaks at Oxford Economic Society - London
    • 15:30 ECB's Coeure speaks at ICMA meeting - Belgium
    • 18:05 Fed's Bostic speaks at University of Montgomery - Montgomery
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events

    Political catnip is catalyst for lower AUD
    The fractious nature of Australian politics is again on display with news of an eighth lawmaker failing the constitutional citizenship test. The crisis has necessitated replacement members in the Senate and by-elections in seats for candidates exiting the House of Representatives, where the ruling Conservative coalition government is struggling to hang on to its slim majority. Thus far the FX market has largely ignored these comings and goings, focusing instead on US political machinations. However, news that high-profile ex-state Labor leader Kristina Keneally intends to contest a recently vacated House seat could prove to be a tipping point. Political instability can be catnip for FX traders once they get a whiff, as evidenced by what happened in NZ. The AUD is already under pressure as traders recalibrate risk given what looks to be a watered-down US Republican tax plan, together with an imminent Fed funds rate hike and ongoing balance sheet unwind. The AUD's status as EM Asia proxy will eventually garner more attention as USD funding costs inexorably edge higher, exposing the excessive level of corporate debt that has long concerned central bankers.


     
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    EUROPE FX MARKETS OPEN
    FX MARKETS OPEN
    [​IMG]



    TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2017

    USD TREADS WATER AHEAD OF BUSY DAY

    Market Briefs
    Weaker than ever, May faces test in UK parliament over Brexit plans
    • British government introduces budget for Northern Ireland
    • CN Oct Industrial Output y/y, 6.2% vs 6.6%, f' cast 6.3%
    • CN Oct Retail Sales y/y, 10.0% vs 10.3%, f’ cast 10.4%
    • CN Oct Urban Investment (ytd) y/y, 7.3% vs 7.5%, f'cast 7.4%
    • China property investment growth cools in Oct, sales decline accelerates
    • Eighth Australian lawmaker falls in citizenship crisis
    • AU Oct NAB Business Conditions 21 vs 14
    • AU Oct NAB Business Confidence 8 vs 7
    • Japan wages seen rising 2-2.5 pct in spring, below Abe's target – Rtrs poll
    • Risks ahead for U.S. tax push as disputes linger, Trump returns
    • U.S. Senate Republicans ask Moore to withdraw as new accuser steps forward

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 07:00 DE Q3 GDP Flash q/q, SA, y/y, NSA, f' cast 0.6%, 2.3% 0.6%, 0.8% last
    • 07:00 DE Oct HICP Final y/y, f' cast 1.5%, 1.5% last
    • 09:30 GB Oct CPI m/m, y/y, f'cast 0.2%, 3.1%, 0.3%, 3.0% last
    • 10:00 EZ Q3 GDP Flash Estimate q/q, y/y, f' cast 0.6%, 2.5%, 0.6%, 2.5% last
    • 10:00 EZ Industrial Production m/m, y/y, f' cast -0.6%, 3.2%, 1.4%, 3.8% last
    • 10:00 DE Nov ZEW Economic Sentiment f' cast 20.0, 17.6 last
    • 10:00 DE Nov ZEW Current Conditions f' cast 88.0, 87.0 last

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • N/A EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting
    • 08:05 Fed's Yellen and Evans, ECB's Draghi, BoJ's Kuroda,
    • BoE's Carney are set to speak at ECB Conference – Frankfurt
    • 13:15 Fed's Bullard presents on US economy – Louisville
    • 15:30 BoE's Cunliffe speaks at Oxford Economic Society – London
    • 15:30 ECB's Coeure speaks at ICMA meeting – Belgium
    • 18:05 Fed's Bostic speaks at University of Montgomery – Montgomery
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY trades a narrow 113.52/74 range in Asia Tuesday
    • Nikkei opened down 0.2%, moved into positive territory during the morning
    • Nikkei last up 0.5%, but USD/JPY not paying attention
    • Support for USD/JPY at 113.19 Kijun line and resistance at 113.91 Tenkan
    • JPY crosses mostly flat, AUD/JPY a tad higher on NAB business conditions
    • EUR/JPY also slightly higher, trades a range of 132.49/71

    EUR
    • EUR/USD only manages a range of 1.1662/76 in Asia
    • Still struggling to close back above the SHS neckline at 1.1670
    • A break of the neckline targets a move to the 100 DMA at 1.1732
    • But downside limited by rising bund yields, strong data
    • Support at 1.1632 10 DMA and 1.1623 Monday low

    GBP
    • Fraction firmer in Asia - closed -0.6% on political/Brexit uncertainty
    • Tight 1.3114/1.3129 Asian range - GBP sidelined with little interest
    • Neutral momentum studies, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs crest, 2nd week of consolidation
    • Familiar levels - Nov 1.3040/1.3321 range holds - close outside directional
    • 1.3150 650M strike then 1.3198 Asian high first resistance
    • London 1.3063 low then 1.3040 Nov base initial support
    • UK inflation leads data – polls - CPI y/y +3.1%

    CHF
    • Tight 99.59/99.68 USD/CHF range in Asia, EUR/CHF 1.1622/1.1630
    • No CHF specific news – European currencies sidelined in Asia

    AUD
    • Opened Asia session 0.44% lower at 0.7624, thus far traded 0.7609/0.7639 range
    • Prevailing risk-off vibe saw early intraday base of 0.7609 for fresh 4-mth low
    • Bids ahead of the figure braced encouraging partial buy-back
    • Gains accelerated following stellar NAB Aust business conditions survey results
    • Index to all-time high in Oct with strength broad based across States/industries
    • Catalyst for eventual run to 0.7639 high before wad of China data disappointed
    • Gradual retrace back to 0.7625/30 area for little net changed overall
    • Helping hand from local data unlikely resonates as aligns with Debelle speech Mon
    • Move closer to 0.7570 5 July trend low remains in prospect, last at 0.7629

    NZD
    • Bear pressure still in situ for NZD tracking post 1 Nov lows within 0.6860/0.6901 range
    • 0.6900 open eventually gave way to AUD/NZD sourced kiwi component leg offers
    • Solid NAB oz business survey main point of difference bouncing cross off 1.1045 area
    • Lingering risk off sentiment weighed so too AUD/NZD reclaiming 1.11 foothold
    • China IP, retail sales and FAI data f/c shortfalls added deadweight
    • 0.6825 1 Nov low as sup just ahead of 0.6818 11 May and 27 Oct cycle low
    • Breach here opens up sub-0.6800 move closer to 0.6779 2 June 2016 base
    • On the defensive in line with risk, marginally extending Fri's low of 0.6921

    EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    • Nikkei at 22,501 +0.54%, SSEC -0.45%, HSI +0.1%, STI -0.54%, Kospi -0.26%
    • JKSE and KLSE both flat, NZX50 +0.4%, ASX200 as regions laggard -0.9%
    • US Treasury 10s indicated 2.406%, JGB 10s 0.051%
    • Dalian iron ore +1.0%, LME copper-0.1%, gold -0.1%,light crude -0.25%

    Political catnip is catalyst for lower AUD
    The fractious nature of Australian politics is again on display with news of an eighth lawmaker failing the constitutional citizenship test. The crisis has necessitated replacement members in the Senate and by-elections in seats for candidates exiting the House of Representatives, where the ruling Conservative coalition government is struggling to hang on to its slim majority. Thus far the FX market has largely ignored these comings and goings, focusing instead on US political machinations. However, news that high-profile ex-state Labor leader Kristina Keneally intends to contest a recently vacated House seat could prove to be a tipping point. Political instability can be catnip for FX traders once they get a whiff, as evidenced by what happened in NZ. The AUD is already under pressure as traders recalibrate risk given what looks to be a watered-down US Republican tax plan, together with an imminent Fed funds rate hike and ongoing balance sheet unwind. The AUD's status as EM Asia proxy will eventually garner more attention as USD funding costs inexorably edge higher, exposing the excessive level of corporate debt that has long concerned central bankers.
     
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    Dow Jones Symphony - Home
    Dow Jones Newswires, 15 Nov 2017 04:17 EST
    Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk



    0917 GMT - Bid prices on Astaldi's 7.125% 2020 bond collapse further to 68.3% from 81.5% after the firm's results, which revealed a EUR230 million write-down on its exposures to Venezuela. The bond touched intraday lows of 63.15% earlier Wednesday -- it was quoted above par only last week. The Italian construction firm calculates a recovery rate of 47% using Venezuelan government bond yields, credit default swaps and discounted cash flows. Venezuela's foreign-currency debt was downgraded to restricted default at Fitch Tuesday and at selective default at S&P earlier in the week. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)


    0912 GMT - Positive U.K. jobs data at 0930 GMT would send GBP/USD above 1.32, says ING. Just ahead of the data, GBP/USD already trades close to that level, at 1.3189, and a break above 1.32 could see it rise above Friday's high of 1.3230. According to a WSJ poll, average three-month earnings growth, excluding bonuses, is expected at 2.1% in October, with the three-month unemployment rate expected unchanged at 4.3%. ING says: "The true test for the BOE's hawkish assumptions over the coming months will be the labour market data," it says. GBP/USD is lifted by a weak dollar, but sterling falls against astronger euro. EUR/GBP rises to its highest in nearly four weeks at 0.8982. (olga.cotaga@wsj.com; @OlgaCotaga)

    0900 GMT - Even though the deficit of defined-benefit pension schemes has shrunk during the course of 2017, liabilities of around GBP1.7 billion should ensure ongoing supply for long-dated gilts for years to come, RBC Capital Markets says. This demand should be "prevalent" as the year draws to a close, not least because December's coupon payments in conventional gilts -- which are likely to be reinvested in similar issues -- are mostly from longer-dated gilts, RBC adds. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)

    0853 GMT - European Central Bank Governing Council member Ardo Hansson says the eurozone economy is currently expanding at a rate about one percentage point above its growth potential, suggesting slack in the 19-nation currency union should be used up quickly. The Bank of Estonia governor said there are "incipient signs" of gathering wage growth, and that the risks in the short term are "probably somewhat towards the upside." The ECB in October agreed to pare back the pace of its bond purchases next year, while extending the program through to September. "I think the policy choice that was announced broadly makes sense," Mr. Hansson says.(Jason.Douglas@wsj.com)

    0853 GMT - A downgrade of French retailer Auchan at S&P seems unlikely, as this would require large M&A or a jump in shareholder payments pushing debt leverage toward three times from 2.3 times, UniCredit says. But the bank doesn't give Auchan's bonds the all-clear. On the contrary, it keeps its underweight recommendation, arguing that the already tight spread curve leaves limited tightening potential. And Auchan's shorter-dated bonds, maturing in 2018 and 2019, already trade at negative yields, UniCredit adds. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)

    0838 GMT - Commerzbank doesn't see the U.S. dollar falling or rising on the back of U.S. inflation data, due 1330 GMT. "Consumer prices...are unlikely to have risen much in October," but "the Fed will nonetheless stick to its rate hike in December," the bank says. Core CPI is likely to have risen 0.2% month-on-month in October, according to a WSJ poll. "As the market is unlikely to adjust its longer term rate expectations until the inflation rates rises, I do not see any upside potential for USD as a result of today's data," says a Commerzbank analyst in a note. (olga.cotaga@wsj.com; @OlgaCotaga)

    0837 GMT - German 10-year bund yields have come off recent lows around 0.30%, but they remain at historically expensive levels near 0.40%, ING rates strategists say ahead of Germany's EUR3 billion auction of the August 2027 bund on Wednesday. The 10-year bund yield trades at 0.38%, according to Tradeweb. ING strategists add that the 10-year maturity sector also remains expensive versus five- and 30-year maturities. Bond yields rise as prices fall. (emese.bartha@wsj.com; @EmeseBartha)

    0822 GMT - Yields on 10-year U.K. government bonds, or gilts, should reach 1.75% by the end of next year, TD Securities says in its 2018 outlook. This would represent a 43-basis-point increase from current levels. Yields rise as bond prices drop. Gilt prices should also under-perform versus German and U.S. counterparts, as those bonds already price in monetary tightening to a certain extent. By contrast, the gilt market has been less convinced regarding the future path of Bank of England policy, TD adds. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)

    0819 GMT - Singapore's "car-lite" future ambitions could be hampered if breakdowns and other snags continue to plague its mass rapid transit system, Jones Lang LaSalle says. That as a collision between two subway trains in Singapore injured 25 people Wednesday morning. The city state had been known for its well developed public transport infrastructure, but its train network has faced criticism in the last few years for frequent breakdowns. "Of greater concern is the underlying causes of these breakdowns and incidents as these could call to question Singaporeans' work ethics and corporate governance, amongst others," says JLL's Singapore research head Tay Huey Ying. (saurabh.chaturvedi@wsj.com; @journosaurabh)

    0809 GMT - ING says the U.S. consumer price index, due 1330 GMT, may lower the probability of an interest rate increase in December, something that strategists and market participants think is a done deal. "A miss could be more troubling for the U.S. dollar given that we could see the 90% probability of a December Fed hike currently priced into markets fall quite sharply," the bank says. According to a WSJ poll, market consensus points to a 0.2% month-on-month increase in October core CPI. EUR/USD is up at 1.1821, but USD/JPY is down 0.48% at 112.868. (olga.cotaga@wsj.com; @OlgaCotaga)

    0759 GMT - Iceland's central bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% later on Wednesday, as a decline in the real policy rate, uncertainty about Iceland's fiscal stance and short-term developments in the labor market are likely to outweigh other factors, says Jon Bentsson, chief economist at Islandsbanki. Those factors include signs of weaker GDP growth in Iceland, a calmer housing market and a more stable krona, he says. But Mr. Bentsson wouldn't exclude the possibility of a 0.25% rate cut. "It is difficult to determine the MPC's priorities at present," he says, pointing to "a considerable dove-like tendency" among committee members. A decision is due at 0855 GMT. (nina.adam@wsj.com)

    0728 GMT - Market-maker quotes on Astaldi's 7.125% 2020 euro bond collapse early Wednesday after the Italian construction firm's results late Tuesday, which featured a EUR230 million write-down on its exposure to Venezuela. Bid quotes -- the price at which the market-maker is willing to buy - tumble to 67.63% from 81.5% Tuesday, according to Tradeweb. Bids stood above par only last week. "Investors might wish to find the door quickly and look for either a better re-entry point if and when stability does return, or count their blessings if Astaldi's foundations collapse," CreditSights says after the results. (tasos.vossos@wsj.com; @tasosvos)

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
     
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2017


    TOP NEWS

    Japan's GDP grows for 7 straight quarters, outlook remains solid
    Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter due to strong exports, posting the longest period of uninterrupted growth in more than a decade. The economy expanded at a 1.4 percent annualised rate in July-September, slightly above the median estimate for annualised growth of 1.3 percent, Cabinet Office data showed. GDP grew 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter, which matched the median estimate and followed a 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in April-June. Private consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, fell 0.5 percent from the previous quarter, more than the median estimate of a 0.3 percent contraction to mark the first decline since October-December 2015.

    Steady UK inflation leaves question mark over BoE rate action
    British inflation unexpectedly held steady in October, wrong-footing the Bank of England and raising fresh questions about how fast the central bank will follow up on this month's interest rate hike. The annual rate of consumer price inflation was unchanged from September's five-and-a-half-year high of 3.0 percent, official data showed. While inflation in many developed countries remains weak, in Britain it has surged from just 0.5 percent at the time of the June 2016 vote to leave the European Union as the fall in the pound pushed up the cost of imported goods.

    U.S. Senate Republicans tie tax plan to repeal of key Obamacare mandate
    U.S. Senate Republicans on Tuesday linked repealing a key component of Obamacare to their ambitious tax-cut plan, raising new political risks and uncertainties for the tax measure that financial markets have been monitoring closely for months. The finance panel, which had been in session for two days, abruptly adjourned on Tuesday as Democrats slammed the Republicans' handling of their tax proposals, for which formal legislative language has still not been unveiled. Tying Obamacare to the tax program introduces new risks for the Republicans and for President Donald Trump. Together, they have yet to score a major legislative win since Trump took power in January, even with control of Congress and the White House.


    Top central bankers vow to talk investors out of easy money
    Four of the world's top central bankers promised on Tuesday to keep openly guiding investors about future policy moves as they slowly withdraw the huge monetary stimulus rolled out during the financial crisis. After pumping some $10 trillion into financial markets since the 2008 crisis the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are now trying to wean investors off easy money without causing an upset. To do this, words will be key, the heads of the four central banks told an ECB conference on communication. It is called forward guidance in banker-speak, essentially warning gently of what is coming.

    Services boost U.S. producer prices; underlying inflation firming
    U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in October, driven by a surge in the cost of services, leading to the biggest annual increase in wholesale inflation in more than 5-1/2 years. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.4 percent last month after a similar gain in September. That lifted the year-on-year increase in the PPI to 2.8 percent, the largest rise since February 2012, from 2.6 percent in September. Margins for fuels and lubricants retailing soared 24.9 percent, accounting for almost half of the increase in the cost of services last month. Services rose 0.4 percent in September. The rise in services helped to offset a 4.6 percent drop in the cost of gasoline.


    BREAKINGVIEWS

    Japan’s growth streak starts to look shakier

    Japan’s growth spell is showing signs of fatigue. GDP has now expanded for seven straight quarters, growing by 1.4 percent at an annualised rate in the third quarter. At first glance this marks another endorsement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s programme of economic renewal. The last unbroken run of this length ended in 2001. But while it is risky to read too much into this choppy data, reality looks a bit gloomier.



    JAPAN'S ECONOMY
    [​IMG]



    MORNING MEETING


    JGBS SUPPORTED BY FIRMER USTS

    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    • US Treasury 10s indicated 2.36%, JGB 10s 0.044%
    • JGBs firmer, supported gains in USTs overnight
    • But gains very limited, 10yr yield -0.5bp, longer yields -1bp
    • 1yr auction strong, avg accepted rate -0.2145%, vs -0.19/-0.20% before auction
    • More than half taken by undisclosed players, 36% by single domestic house
    • JGB futures up 8 ticks after trading in tight 150.85/150.76 range
    • Nikkei at 22,035 off 1.5%, SSEC -0.70%, HSI +0.75%, STI -0.85%, Kospi -0.45%
    • JKSE +0.2%, KLSE -0.15%, NZX50 -0.1%, ASX200 -0.40%
    • Dalian iron ore -4.0%, LME copper-0.2%, gold unchanged, light crude -1.10%

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY trades a range of 113.03/49 in Asia
    • Trades quietly around 113.40 for first few hours of the session
    • Japan GDP and capex close to expectations, no impact
    • Nikkei off 0.9% in the morning, last at -1.4% in afternoon session
    • Stocks across Asia plus US futures marked lower take USD/JPY down
    • AUD/JPY hit hard after soft Australian wage data, last down 0.8%
    • EUR/JPY 0.3% lower as JPY outperforms in Asia
    • Support seen at Nov lows between 112.96-113.09
    • Close below the Kijun line at 113.19 targets 38.2 Fibo at 111.90

    EUR
    • EUR/USD quiet in Asia with focus on JPY, trades 1.1786/1.1802 range
    • Next resistance at 1.1822/37, 50% retracement and ECB day high
    • Support now at 1.1691, rebound high on Nov 3 after payrolls
    • Sell-off in Nikkei and US stock futures drives JPY cross selling
    • EUR/AUD gains 0.6% as Australian wage data softer than expected
    • Other EUR crosses mixed, EUR/JPY lower and EUR/GBP higher

    GBP
    • -0.2% in Asia with risk, as WTI falls 1.1% & E-mini S&P -0.3%
    • 1.3131/1.3163 range today with moderate interest once Asia fully opened
    • Neutral momentum studies, 5, 10 & 20 DMAs coil, as consolidation extends
    • Familiar levels - Nov 1.3040/1.3321 range holds - close outside directional
    • Earlier 1.3163 high then 1.3200 340M strikes are first resistance
    • 1.3075 London low then this weeks 1.3063 base is initial support

    CHF
    • -0.1% in Asia modest risk off session with stock & oil lower
    • Tight 0.9887/0.9899 Range & EUR/CHF 1.1662/1.1672
    • No specific CHF related news – sidelined in Asia

    Market Briefs
    • Japan's GDP grows for 7 straight quarters, outlook remains solid
    • Australia consumer sentiment eases back in Oct-survey
    • AU Q3 Wage Price Index q/q, y/y, 0.5%, 2.0%, last 0.5%, 1.9%, f'cast 0.7%, 2.2%
    • Auckland house prices see biggest annual fall since 2010
    • Britain's May sees off challenges to Brexit plan, so far
    • UK's Hammond has limited options to help May with budget
    • CN Oct FDI (YTD) 1.90% vs 1.60%
    • Senior Chinese diplomat to visit North Korea as envoy of Xi
    • Top central bankers vow to talk investors out of easy money
    • U.S. Senate Republicans tie tax plan to repeal of key Obamacare mandate
    • U.S. Commerce chief says 'some sort' of NAFTA deal will reach Trump
    • Sessions changes statement about Trump campaign and Russia

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 07:45 FR Oct CPI (EU Norm) Final m/m, y/y, f'cast 0.1%, 1.2%, -0.2%, 1.2% last
    • 09:30 GB Oct Claimant Count Unem Chng f'cast 2.3k, last 1.7k
    • 09:30 GB Sept ILO Unemployment Rate f'cast 4.3%, 4.3% last

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • N/A - EU General Affairs Council meeting - Brussels
    • 07:00 Ireland cen bank's Lane will speak at a conference - Dublin
    • 08:00 Fed's Evans will speak at a UBS conference - London
    • 10:00 ECB's Praet and Denmark Nationalbank's Rohde speak at a ECB conference - Frankfurt
    • 12:00 BoE's Haldane participates at a ECB conference - Frankfurt
    • 13:00 BoE's Braodbent speaks at LSE - London
    • 15:05 Riksbank's Skingsley participates at a discussion - Stockholm
    • 21:10 Fed's Rosengren speaks at Northeastern University - Boston
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events