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Hot Brendan Keenan's "Bleak Omens" for Europe!

Discussion in 'Europe' started by Dublin 4, Dec 15, 2017 at 10:00 AM.

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    Macron, Rothschild PAWN & ACTOR, proposes A Single Finance Minister, & a Single Parliament for 19 EU States......... C'est CA !!!
    :worship2::worship2::worship2::worship2:
     
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    [​IMG] Nitey nitey- Chit Chat Goons :sleep:
     
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    Dow Jones Newswires, 01 Dec 2017 02:04 EST
    Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk


    0704 GMT - The Bank of Thailand will leave benchmark rates unchanged through 2018, says Nomura, following data showing core inflation at 0.6%, and headline inflation ticking up only a fraction to 1.0%. "We expect [CPI] inflation to remain at the low end of the 1%-4% target next year, with still-limited demand-side pressures," Nomura says. After South Korea became the first major Asian central bank to raise its main policy rate, economists say others in the region will follow. (gaurav.raghuvanshi@wsj.com)

    0655 GMT - Has the Indian economy weathered the transitional challenges experienced after demonetization and GST? Probably, says Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. The "deceleration trend in overall growth has reversed and the economy appears for a durable recovery going forward," he adds after late Thursday's GDP report. Manufacturing growth jumped to 7% from 2Q's 1.2%. Other data have also been strengthening. (rajesh.roy@wsj.com)

    0628 GMT - Yesterday's 3Q GDP report should brighten the electoral prospects in Modi's home state of Gujarat later this month for the PM's party. The western state, a destination for businesses and industrial activity, has seen protests amid GST procedural problems. However, the surge in manufacturing activities and overall economic growth means the adverse impact of the new taxation was fading. "It will repose people's confidence in Modi," says a finance ministry official. (rajesh.roy@wsj.com)

    0626 GMT - Japanese stocks saw some buying in afternoon trading, but the gains weren't enough to get the Nikkei toward the session's highest level shortly after the open. It finished up 0.4% at 22819.03 after earlier jumping as much as 1.2%. Among individual stocks, Nippon Paint bounced 8.3% as talks regarding a potential buyout of US rival Axalta have ended. Dollar-yen is steady with late-Thursday levels in New York and 10-year JGB yields have given up earlier gains to end flat at 0.03%. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

    0604 GMT - It was another downbeat week for Aussie dollar bulls, most recently feeling pressure from narrowed interest-rate spreads. It's the first time in more than 15 years that Aussie 2-year bond yields are the same as Treasurys; the US yield has been the one below. Parity in the past has been a trigger for Aussie-dollar selling. It approached US$0.7650 early in the week but fell steadily as the days passed, currently sitting US$0.7565. A month ago, it was above US$0.77. Critical support is at US$0.75. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

    0542 GMT - An early move by the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates would send the wrong signal to foreign-exchange markets, risking a sharp rise in the yen while undermining the experiment of changing inflation expectations, says Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC. Instead, he thinks the Kuroda-led central bank will likely keep its foot firmly on the gas. "Like Kuroda himself said, you almost need to border on the irresponsible to show that you are serious about raising inflation, and an overshoot of inflation above the target is justified." (paul.jackson@wsj.com)

    0538 GMT - Economists Down Under shouldn't throw away the Phillips curve just yet, according to Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC. Many analysts in Australia have pushed back their forecasts for a rate increase into 2019 after recent comments by RBA Gov. Philip Lowe, but HSBC still sees the central bank moving next year. "One contention that we make is the Phillips curve in Australia is still in better shape than it is in other OECD countries, partly because Australia never experienced the dislocation of the global financial crisis." Australia hasn't seen a recession in a quarter-century, and folks there are therefore more likely to ask for higher pay. He thinks wage pressure should come back relatively swiftly next year. (paul.jackson@wsj.com)

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
     
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    FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2017
    TOP NEWS

    Progress in Brexit talks has lessened chance of disorderly exit-Reuters Poll
    Signs of progress in Brexit negotiations to leave the EU mean the chance of a disorderly Brexit declined in the past month, a Reuters poll found, and the talks will probably end with a free trade deal. Potentially heralding a breakthrough in the talks, Britain and the EU have reached agreement on a divorce bill and are close to agreement over the Northern Ireland border, newspapers reported. So the chance of a disorderly Brexit - where no deal has been reached when the two years of talks are scheduled to close in March 2019 - has fallen to 25 percent from the 30 percent chance given in an October poll.

    ESM could be used as stabilisation fund, Eurogroup head says
    The role of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) could be expanded to provide a revolving stabilisation fund that could help governments hit by economic shocks, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers Jeroen Dijsselbloem said. The idea is part of a broader debate on whether the 19 countries that share the euro would benefit from a dedicated budget. ESM Managing Director Klaus Regling has been pushing for a limited euro area budget to deal with asymmetric economic shocks -- economic misfortunes that befall one country rather than the whole bloc.

    Japan consumer prices, household spending raise doubts about inflation
    Japan's core consumer prices rose in October from a year earlier, marking the 10th straight month of gains, but a narrower measure that excludes energy showed inflation has not accelerated for three consecutive months. The nationwide core CPI index rose 0.8 percent in October from a year ago, due to gains in gasoline, kerosene, and healthcare costs, data showed. Japan's jobless rate held steady at 2.8 percent in October and the availability of jobs reached the highest in almost 44 years, separate data showed. Another report from the finance ministry showed capital expenditure rose 4.2 percent in July-September, faster than a 1.5 percent gain in April-June.


    China Nov factory growth slows to 5-month low, confidence sags-Caixin PMI
    China's manufacturing activity grew at the weakest pace in five months in November as input costs remained high and tougher pollution measures weighed on business confidence, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI showed.The index dipped to 50.8 from 51.0 in October, but was roughly in line with economists' expectations for a slight drop to 50.9. Separately, the US formally told the World Trade Organization that it opposes granting China market economy status, supporting the EU in a dispute with China that could have major repercussions for the trade body's future.

    U.S. Senate tax bill stalls on deficit-focused 'trigger'
    The U.S. Senate on Thursday delayed voting on a Republican tax overhaul as the bill was tripped up by problems with an amendment sought by fiscal hawks to address a large expansion of the federal budget deficit projected to result from the measure. That set up the possibility that its deep tax cuts might have to be moderated, that future tax increases might be built in, and that some conservatives might seek to attach spending cuts, all approaches that could throw up new political problems. Republican Senator Bob Corker and others had tried to add a provision to the bill to trigger automatic future tax increases if the tax cuts in the bill did not boost the economy and generate revenues sufficient to offset the deficit expansion, but the proposal was barred on procedural grounds.


    BREAKINGVIEWS

    Botched process leads to Frankenstein tax plan

    The U.S. Congress is creating a Frankenstein tax plan. Senate Republicans are rushing into a vote on their tax-cut effort. Changes to appease critics in their own party have yet to be settled, including a trigger to raise taxes if growth falls short of projections. To make matters worse, lower-income Americans will also face higher bills.



    CHART OF THE DAY
    [​IMG]


    MORNING MEETING

    JGB FUTURES' RALLY RESUMES


    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    US Treasury 10s indicated 2.405%, JGB 10s 0.032%, Bund 10s 0.373%
    • US-Japan-Germany respective 2s indicated 1.788%, -0.157%, -0.711%
    • JGB futures rally, brushing aside weaker USTs, firmer stocks, USD/JPY
    • At 151.02, futures up 9 ticks on day, up from early low of 150.85
    • Long-end bonds heavy on yesterday's announcement on BoJ op plan for Dec
    • Op plan for Dec shows no long-end buy ops until after 30yr auction on Dec 7
    • Nikkei gap up open on big Wall St rally, down later however
    • From 22,994 early high to 22,675 before steadying
    • At 22,817, index up 92 points or 0.4% on day
    • AXJ mostly up - KOSPI 0.3%, STI and TWI 0.8%, ASX 0.3%, NZX50 above par
    • Shanghai and HSI outliers, -0.35% and -0.1%, respectively
    • Dalian iron ore +1.8%, Shanghai rubber +1.95%, Tokyo rubber +1.8%

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY, major JPY crosses buoyant on recent rises in yields
    • USD/JPY at two-week highs, Asia range 112.32-69, bias up
    • Option expiries again help cap - USD1 bln 112.65-70 today, 113.00 605 mln
    • More above on 113-handle, size below too however, 112.20-55 USD723 mln
    • Total USD2.7 bln between 111.00-112.00 too
    • Higher US yields supportive, US Treasury 10s as high as 2.437%, Asia @2.41%
    • Nikkei lagging despite big Wall St rally o/n but not down
    • EUR/JPY buoyant, Asia 133.83-134.06, yesterday 132.67 to 134.15 rally
    • Bias still up despite slump in EZ yields after CPI up less than eyed
    • 134.49-50 double top 10/25-26 in spec sights
    • GBP/JPY on up-up, Asia 152.00-40, 152.80-85 highs 9/21/22 in spec sights
    • Move up from 146.94 Tuesday massive but may have more legs
    • AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY outliers, demand low, 84.97-85.20 and 76.74-98 ranges
    • Dollar-bloc in less Japanese investor demand

    EUR
    • EUR/USD, EUR complex buoyant despite small slump in EZ yields post EZ-CPI
    • CPI up less than eyed, but EUR bias still up, buy recommendations galore
    • EUR/USD 1.1887-1.1916 in Asia, high yesterday 1.1931, 11/27 1.1961
    • Option expiries help tether-bracket spot so far, lack of other news/flows
    • 1.1875 E596 mln, 1.1900 763 mln, 1.1925-30 999 mln
    • EUR/JPY Tokyo buy-interest, EUR/USD also well above 1.1833 Ichi cloud top

    GBP
    • Cable remain bid in Asia, 1.3510-50, 1.3549 high overnight
    • Rally may have more legs, no signs of long liquidation in Asia
    • Could be some in market still caught short? Or late in buying?
    • Specs eyeing moves towards 1.3659 spike high September 20
    • Some resistance still from 1.3550, ahead of 1.3600, stops tipped above
    • GBP/JPY demand from Japanese investors supportive
    • EUR/GBP on back foot, Asia 0.8789-0.8803, quiet, low yesterday 0.8777
    • Some support from around ascending 200-DMA at 0.8796, 55-WMA 0.8725

    CHF
    • USD/CHF down from 0.9882 high yesterday, Asia 0.9829-48
    • Spot back in ascending daily Ichi cloud, top 0.9865, 55-DMA 0.9832
    • 55-DMA ascending, descending 200-DMA below at 0.9802
    • EUR/CHF buoyant, Asia 1.1705-20, at recent highs
    • More upside likely if 1.1720 cleared decisively
    • 1.1723 high November 17, 1.1722 high November 27

    Market Briefs
    • U.S. Senate tax bill stalls on deficit-focused 'trigger'
    • Trump considers plan to replace Tillerson with CIA chief - U.S. officials
    • U.S. Senate Ethics Committee opens probe of Senator Franken
    • U.S. attorney general Sessions evasive on Russia probe -congressmen
    • Trump: China's N.Korea diplomacy appears to have 'no impact on Little Rocket Man'
    • North Korea images suggest missile capable of hitting all America - U.S. experts
    • U.S. formally opposes China market economy status at WTO
    • CN Nov Caixin Mfg PMI Final 50.8, 51.0 last, 50.9 f' cast
    • JP Oct core CPI +0.8% y/y, Tokyo Nov core +0.6%, both as eyed
    • JP Oct unemployment unch, 2.8% as eyed, jobs-applicants ratio 1.55, 1.53 eyed
    • JP Oct household spending -2.0% m/m, unch y/y, -1.4%, -0.4% eyed
    • JP MoF survey - Japan Inc Q3 CAPEX +4.2% y/y, profits +5.5%, sales +4.8%
    • NZ finance minister promises to maintain fiscal prudence, spread prosperity
    • NZ Q3 Terms of Trade q/q, 0.7%, 1.5% last, 0.9% f' cast
    • Australia home prices stall as Sydney hits an air-pocket
    • UK lawmakers cast doubt on plan to avoid Ireland border after Brexit
    • No north-south Ireland border despite leaving customs union, British minister pledges
    • As OPEC extends output cuts, Asia turns to North America for more oil
    • U.S.-based money market funds post $33 bln inflows, largest of 2017 -Lipper
    • Foreign CB US debt holdings +15.03 bln to $3.39 trln Nov 29 week
    • Treasuries +4.88 bln to $3.05 trln, agencies +1.79 mln to +$263.79 bln

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 08:50 FR Nov Markit Mfg PMI f' cast 57.5, 57.5 last
    • 08:55 DE Nov Markit/BME Mfg PMI f' cast 62.5, last 62.5
    • 09:00 EZ Nov Markit Mfg Final PMI f' cast 60.0, last 60.0
    • 09:30 GB Nov Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI f' cast 56.5, last 56.3

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • N/A Riksbank's Floden talks at a meeting - Stockholm
    • 13:30 Fed's Yellen participates in Fed Challenge Finals - Washington
    • 14:05 Fed's Bullard presents on US economy - Little Rock
    • 14:30 Fed's Kaplan participates in a discussion - McAllen
    • 15:15 Fed's Harker speaks at a conference - Philadelphia
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events

    Japanese investors, carry players dominate JPY flows
    With hedge funds all but done for this year (fiscal year effectively over as of November), Japanese investors have stepped up to the plate as the major influence in JPY markets. Granted they have been good players in the recent past but flows emanating from this bloc now look to be dominating. This is especially the case with commercial and investment banks also winding down for year-end. The effect of this investor bloc has been felt this week, with most good buyers of major currencies such as USD, EUR and even GBP. Of course higher yields in the US, EZ and UK have helped, especially among the carry crowd. Abating concerns over Brexit in particular have seen GBP/JPY surge from a low of 146.94 on Tuesday to a 152.40 high this morning. Higher rates and fading Brexit concerns saw EUR/JPY from 131.16 on Nov 20 to 134.15 overnight and the most sought-after USD/JPY is up from 110.85 Monday to a 112.69 high so far today.
     
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    THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 2017


    TOP NEWS


    McCain backs U.S. Senate tax bill, boosting chances of approval
    A sweeping Republican-sponsored tax overhaul gained momentum in the U.S. Senate with the backing of Senator John McCain, as party leaders held behind-the-scenes negotiations to try to secure enough votes for passage. McCain, a key player in July's collapse of a Republican effort to dismantle Obamacare, said the tax bill was "far from perfect." But the war hero and former presidential candidate said the bill would boost the economy and give tax relief to all Americans.

    U.S. consumer spending cools in October, inflation firming
    U.S. consumer spending slowed in October as the hurricane-related boost to motor vehicle purchases faded, while a sustained increase in underlying price pressures suggested that a recent disinflationary trend had probably run its course. The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.3 percent last month after surging 0.9 percent in September. In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended Nov. 25.

    Small euro zone inflation rise matches ECB expectations of coming dip
    Euro zone inflation rose less than expected in November, indicating that price growth remains weak and reinforcing ECB expectations for a dip around the turn of the year. Inflation rose to 1.5 percent in November from 1.4 percent a month earlier, missing expectations for 1.6 percent, despite a surge in oil price that increased energy costs, data from Eurostat showed. Separately, Germany’s seasonally adjusted jobless total fell by 18,000 to 2.476 million, a far bigger drop than the 10,000 forecast in a Reuters poll, data published by the Federal Labour Office showed.

    OPEC, Russia agree oil cut extension to end of 2018
    OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to extend oil output cuts until the end of 2018 as they try to finish clearing a global glut of crude while signalling a possible early exit from the deal if the market overheats. Russia needs much lower oil prices to balance its budget than OPEC's leader Saudi Arabia, which is preparing a stock market listing for national energy champion Aramco next year and would hence benefit from pricier crude. The producers' current deal, under which they are cutting supply by about 1.8 million barrels per day in an effort to boost oil prices, expires in March.

    Rising risks suggest Bank of Canada now in no rush to raise rates
    The Bank of Canada (BoC) will leave rates unchanged until April, held back by the uncertainty over how highly indebted consumers will handle increasing borrowing costs and the unknown fate of the NAFTA, a Reuters poll found. Having increased interest rates in July and September, the consensus in this week's poll of over 30 economists was for the BoC to hold fire at its upcoming rate-setting meeting on Dec. 6. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada said, Canada's current account deficit in the third quarter swelled to C$19.35 billion as the country's international trade gap in goods continued to expand.


    BREAKINGVIEWS-Botched process leads to Frankenstein tax plan
    The U.S. Congress is creating a Frankenstein tax plan. Senate Republicans are rushing into a vote on their tax-cut effort. Changes to appease critics in their own party have yet to be settled, including a trigger to raise taxes if growth falls short of projections. To make matters worse, lower-income Americans will also face higher bills.


    CHART OF THE DAY

    [​IMG]


    MARKETS TODAY


    TREASURIES: Treasury yields rose sharply, in line with the steep rally on Wall Street, on news that Senator John McCain had endorsed the U.S. Senate tax bill, potentially easing challenges to its eventual passage in Congress. Benchmark 10-year notes were down 12/32, yielding 2.42 pct. 2-year notes slipped 2/32 to yield 1.79 pct. 5-year notes fell 8/32 to yield 2.14 pct. 30-year bonds lost 13/32 to yield 2.84 pct.

    [font=arial]• [b]FOREX:[/b] [/font]The dollar slipped to a four-day low against the euro, hurt by selling pressure due to month-end adjustments, but rallied against the Japanese yen as U.S. Treasury yields rose on optimism about U.S. tax overhaul efforts. The euro added 0.46 pct at $1.1902. Against the yen, the dollar gained 0.55 pct at 112.54 yen. Sterling was up 0.87 pct at $1.3522. The dollar index was down 0.15 pct at 93.022.

    [font=arial]• [b]CORPORATES:[/b] [/font]Corporate bond spreads tightened as chances of passage of a Senate tax overhaul bill rose with the endorsement of Senator John McCain. The CDX-IG.29 index tightened by 1 bps to 52 bps.

    [font=arial]• [b]STOCKS:[/b] [/font]The S&P 500 hit a record closing high and the Dow broke above the 24,000 mark for the first time as investor bet that U.S. Republicans would pass a U.S. tax overhaul. Goldman Sachs rose 2.63 pct. JP Morgan added 0.76 pct. Bank of America gained 0.03 pct. The S&P Financials sector was up 0.54 pct. The Dow rose 331.53 points, or 1.38 pct, to 24,272.21, the S&P 500 gained 21.51 points, or 0.82 pct, to 2,647.58 and the Nasdaq added 49.63 points, or 0.73 pct, to 6,873.97. For the month, Dow was up 3.8 pct, S&P 500 added 2.8 pct, Nasdaq gained 2.2 pct.

    [font=arial]• [b]C&E:[/b] [/font]Oil rose after OPEC and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to extend output cuts until the end of 2018, while also signalling a possible early exit from the deal if the market overheats. U.S. crude was up 0.07 pct at $57.34 a barrel. Brent added 0.73 pct to $63.57 a barrel. Gold lost 0.65 pct at $1275.17 an ounce. Reuters-Jefferies index slipped 0.90 pct to 191.98.



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    LATAM NEWS

    Argentina to defend ag exports, boost Latin America with G20 presidency
    Argentina will use its role as the first South American country to chair the G20 group of major economies to combat protectionism, as the agricultural-exporting region seeks to secure market access for its goods, officials said. Both Argentina and Brazil have transitioned to market-friendly governments in recent years. President Mauricio Macri cast Argentina's presidency as a chance to mark the country's rise as an "important place" in the world, and boost Latin America's profile.


    Off-the-books job gains push Brazil unemployment rate to 2017 low
    Rising off-the-books employment push Brazil's jobless rate to a 10-month low in the three months through October, suggesting a gradual labor market recovery that is unlikely to lift inflation. The unemployment rate fell to 12.2 percent, in line with the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, state statistics agency IBGE said, based on a household survey.


    LATAM MARKETS

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    EYE ON ASIA


    India sees growth rebound as businesses adjust to new tax
    India's economic growth rebounded in the three months ending in September, halting a five-quarter slide as businesses started to overcome teething troubles after the bumpy launch of a national sales tax. GDP grew 6.3 percent in July-September, its fastest pace in three quarters, compared with 7.5 percent a year earlier, the data showed. Data released showing faster growth could help Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been facing criticism over the hasty July launch of a goods and services tax.

    Singapore c.bank warns of 'excessive exuberance' in property market
    Singapore's central bank warned of "excessive exuberance" in the city-state's private housing market, adding that it would take action, if needed, to maintain market stability. Developers have actively taken part in collective sales tenders for multiple properties and the government land sale programme to replenish their land banks alongside a pick up in market activity, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in its annual financial stability review.



    ASIA ECON WATCH
    (Dec 1
    )
    [font=arial][color=#333333][size=2][font=arial][size=3][font=arial]• [/font][/size][/font][/size][/color][/font]China Caixin Services PMI for Nov: Expected 50.9; Prior 51.0 .
    [font=arial][color=#333333][size=2][font=arial][size=3][font=arial]• [/font][/size][/font][/size][/color][/font]Japan All Household spending (mm) for Oct: Expected -1.4 pct; Prior 0.4 pct
    [font=arial][color=#333333][size=2][font=arial][size=3][font=arial]• [/font][/size][/font][/size][/color][/font]Japan CPI, Core Nationwide (yy) for Oct: Expected 0.8 pct; Prior 0.7 pct
    [font=arial][color=#333333][size=2][font=arial][size=3][font=arial]• [/font][/size][/font][/size][/color][/font]Japan Unemployment rate for Oct: Expected 2.8 pct; Prior 2.8 pct
    [font=arial][color=#333333][size=2][font=arial][size=3][font=arial]• [/font][/size][/font][/size][/color][/font]S.Korea CPI Growth for Nov: Expected -0.10 pct; Prior -0.20 pct
    [font=arial][color=#333333][size=2][font=arial][size=3][font=arial]• [/font][/size][/font][/size][/color][/font]S.Korea CPI Growth (yy) for Nov: Expected 1.80 pct; Prior 1.80 pct
    [font=arial][color=#333333][size=2][font=arial][size=3][font=arial]• [/font][/size][/font][/size][/color][/font]Thailand CPI Core Inflation (yy) for Nov: Expected 0.63 pct; Prior 0.58 pct
     
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    Will Europe give Macron the bum's rush?


    BRUSSELS/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation rose less then expected in November, indicating that price growth remains weak and reinforcing European Central Bank expectations for a dip around the turn of the year.

    The ECB targets inflation at just below 2 percent but has missed this objective for nearly five years as the euro zone is still just emerging from its deepest economic crisis in generations with over 14 million people still out of work.

    .....labor market slack is likely bigger than official figures show. While unemployment dipped to 8.8 percent in October, the lowest since the start of 2009, the actual slack may be twice as high, if data included part time workers seeking more hours or those excluded for various statistical reasons, the ECB said earlier.

    Small euro zone inflation rise matches ECB expectations of coming dip
     
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    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    Jump in overnight euro bank lending rate baffles markets


    Dhara Ranasinghe
    3 Min Read


    LONDON (Reuters) - A key overnight benchmark rate European banks use to lend money to each other showed signs of stabilizing on Friday after a surge this week that raised questions about possible funding stresses.
    The Euro Over Night Index Average (EONIA) EONIA= had spiked 12 basis points over two fixings, leaving analysts puzzled by the sudden surge.
    But on Friday it was fixed at -0.291 percent, down from -0.241 percent on Thursday, its highest since March 2016.
    Still, EONIA was set for its biggest weekly rise since November 2014, according to Reuters data.

    Jump in overnight euro bank lending rate baffles markets
     
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    Dublin 4

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