1. To post you need to register an account and await approval. Click Here to sign up!

Hot Brendan Keenan's "Bleak Omens" for Europe!

Discussion in 'Europe' started by Dublin 4, Dec 15, 2017 at 10:00 AM.

?

Are you glad that this Economics Thread is the Biggest Thread of all on P.irish?

  1. Yes.

    60.9%
  2. No.

    39.1%
  1. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    16,085
    Trophy Points:
    313
    Message body


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    TUESDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2017
    TOP NEWS

    Irish border row thwarts May bid to clinch Brexit trade deal
    Prime Minister Theresa May failed to clinch a deal on Monday to open talks on post-Brexit free trade with the European Union after a tentative deal with Dublin to keep EU rules in Northern Ireland angered her allies in Belfast. Yet as May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker spoke in Brussels and the pound rose on prospects of free trade and perhaps a very "soft Brexit", Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party issued an uncompromising reiteration of its refusal to accept any "divergence" from rules on the British mainland. May agreed with Juncker that a deal could be reached in a few days before the EU summit on Dec. 14-15, but that promise did little to stem recriminations at home, where Brexit campaigners want Britain to become what one called a "free agent" and set its own rules.

    Deeper euro zone integration must unite EU - Commission
    European Commission proposals to deepen the integration of the euro zone will seek to make the whole of the European Union more united and improve the democratic accountability of euro zone institutions, Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said. The Commission package will address ideas floated by French President Emmanuel Macron on creating a euro zone budget, a euro zone finance minister and a euro zone parliament. Other ideas include transforming the euro zone bailout fund into a European Monetary Fund and setting up a sovereign insolvency mechanism -- a German-supported project.

    U.S. Congress moves closer to final tax bill with House vote
    The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives voted on Monday to go to conference on tax legislation with the Senate, moving Congress another step closer to a final bill. The House voted 222-192 to go to conference with the Senate, setting up formal negotiations on the legislation that could take weeks to complete.The overhaul would be the largest change to U.S. tax laws since the 1980s. Republicans want to add $1.4 trillion over 10 years to the $20 trillion national debt to finance changes that they say would boost an already growing economy.


    Inflation-hit UK shoppers hunt Black Friday bargains, spend more on food - BRC
    British shoppers snapped up Black Friday bargains last month but an increasing share of their budgets was taken up by the rising cost of food, retailers said. The amount of money spent with retailers last month rose by 0.6 percent compared with a year earlier on a like-for-like basis, stripping out changes in store size, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said. In a sign of how rising prices for many everyday staples are affecting consumers, BRC said the amount of money spent on food over the 12 months to November rose by an average 3.4 percent, the biggest increase since March 2013.

    China's services sector grows at stronger pace in Nov - Caixin PMI
    Growth in China's services sector activity picked up to a three-month high in November, buoyed by a solid rise in new business, though the rate of expansion remained moderate and weaker than the long-run trend, a survey showed. The Caixin/Markit services PMI rose to 51.9 in November, up from 51.2 in October and the highest reading since August. China's leaders are counting on growth in services and consumption to rebalance their economic growth model from its heavy reliance on investment and exports.

    Japan Nov services growth slows but business confidence picks up-PMI
    Japan's service sector activity grew at a slower pace in November due to a slowdown in outstanding business, but new orders remained relatively strong and business sentiment improved, suggesting the economy will continue to expand in coming months. The Markit/Nikkei survey showed its Japan Services PMI fell to 51.2 on a seasonally adjusted from 53.4 in October, which was the highest in 26 months. Separately, the Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda said that the central bank would continue with bold monetary easing under the current policy framework as there was still a distance to reach its 2 percent inflation target.


    ANALYSIS

    U.S. tax bill adds to debt need as interest costs weigh

    A U.S. tax overhaul will increase the government's need to issue more Treasuries as interest costs on the country's debt become a larger drain on the budget.



    CHART OF THE DAY
    [​IMG]


    MORNING MEETING

    SHORT END JGB'S SOLD OFF


    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    US Treasury 10s indicated 2.389%, JGB 10s 0.045%, Bund 10s 0.341%
    • US-Japan-Germany respective 2s indicated 1.816%, -0.133%, -0.747%
    • JGBs off, led by short-end
    • T-bills weak since last week's auction, 3mo yields +4.2bp at -0.13%
    • T-bill weakness spills into 2s, 5s, both yields up 1.5bp
    • 10yr auction weak too; BTC 3.70, tail 0.5bp; 4.55/0.0bp last
    • But losses limited overall, 10yr yields up 1bp at most
    • At 150.84, JGB futures off 9 ticks, range 150.97/150.75
    • Nikkei gap down at open, up later from 22,522 to 22,682
    • At 22,654, index still off 52 points or 0.2% on day, close yesterday 22,707
    • AXJ mixed again - Shanghai above par, KOSPI +0.2%, STI +0.4%
    • HSI -0.3%, TWI -0.7%, ASX -0.2% and NZX50 -0.1%
    • Dalian iron ore +1.1%

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • USD/JPY, JPY crosses off into Asia open, offshore yields soggy
    • Some Gotobi demand but upside for most pairs limited, trading lackluster
    • USD/JPY from early 112.36 low to 112.58, steady thereafter
    • Tracking top of hourly Ichi cloud up, currently 112.50
    • Tech support from ascending 100-HMA at 112.37
    • Option expiries today - 112.00 USD1.17 bln, 112.25-35 430 mln, 113.00 816
    • EUR/JPY off to 133.27 early Asia, up since to 133.64
    • Cross on bounce from ascending 100-HMA, then 133.26, now 133.34
    • Top of hourly Ichi cloud 133.65, 55-HMA above at 133.74
    • GBP/JPY steady in Asia, 1051.36-63, down from 152.94 o/n on no Brexit deal
    • Relatively buoyant, many still optimistic? Rising 100-HMA support at 151.31
    • AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY outlier, up on toshin demand, good Aussie/China data
    • AUD/JPY 85.37 to 86.04, NZD/JPY 77.08 to 77.66 despite dovish RBNZ stance

    EUR
    • EUR/USD opened Asia 1.1866 after recovering from 1.1830 when US yields eased
    • Late day fall in US yields gave USD offered tone into Asia and it continued
    • USD eased across the board with most of the weakness against AUD and NZD
    • The EUR/USD drifted up to 1.1876 and was there into the afternoon session
    • The key to direction will be the moves in US Treasury yields
    • Repeated fails above 2.40% in 10-year US Treasury yield frustrating USD bulls
    • Key support at 1.1805/10 where Nov 30 low and 38.2 of 1.1553/1.1661 converge
    • A break above Nov 21 high at 1.1961 would see trend higher resume

    GBP
    • Cable down from 1.3538 high yesterday on 11th hour Brexit no-deal
    • Down to 1.3415 but since up, steady in Asia, range 1.3462-82, quiet
    • Buoyancy on optimism still by many market players, UK yields also high
    • Though pierced, spot inevitably returns to area of 100-HMA, now 1.3468
    • Underlying support at also ascending 200-HMA currently at 1.3395
    • EUR/GBP sees few trades in Asia but buoyant, 0.8815-19
    • Cross well off 0.8757 low yesterday ahead of Brexit no-deal news
    • UK Nov BRC like-for-like retail sales +0.6% y/y, Oct -1.0%
    • Nov BRC total sales +1.5%, Nov Barclaycard retail spending +2.8% y/y

    CHF
    • USD/CHF quiet in Asia, range 0.9843-53, high o/n 0.9867
    • Holding above ascending 55-DMA at 0.9839, top of daily Ichi cloud 0.9876
    • EUR/CHF quiet too, Asia 1.1685-95, just below 1.1737 trend high 12/1

    Market Briefs
    • Irish border row thwarts May bid to clinch Brexit trade deal
    • GB Nov BRC retail sales y/y, 0.60%, -1.00% last
    • German SPD to start talks with Merkel next week if members agree
    • US top court lets Trump's latest travel ban go into full effect
    • US Congress moves closer to final tax bill with House vote
    • RBNZ says may ease policy if inflation does not pick up from late 2018
    • RBA holds rates as expected
    • AU Oct retail sales m/m, 0.5%, 0.0% last, 0.3% f'cast, 0.1% rvsd
    • AU Q3 current account balance -9.10 bln, -9.60 bln last, -9.20 bln f'cast, -9.70 bln rvsd
    • AU Q3 net exports contribution 0.00%, 0.30 last, 0.25% f'cast
    • CN Nov Caixin Services PMI 51.9, 51.2 last
    • China launches new government yield curve benchmark
    • JP Nov services PMI 51.2, composite PMI 52.2, Oct both 53.4

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 08:50 FR Nov Markit Serv PMI f'cast 60.2, 60.2 last
    • 08:50 FR Nov Markit Comp PMI f'cast 60.1, 60.1 last
    • 08:55 DE Nov Markit Services PMI f'cast 54.9, 54.9 last
    • 08:55 DE Nov Markit Comp Final PMI f'cast 57.6, 57.6 last
    • 09:00 EZ Nov Markit Serv Final PMI f'cast 56.2, 56.2 last
    • 09:00 EZ Nov Markit Comp Final PMI f'cast 57.5, 57.5 last
    • 09:30 GB Nov Markit/CIPS Serv PMI f'cast 55.0, 55.6 last
    • 09:30 EZ Oct Retail Sales m/m, y/y, f'cast -0.7%, 1.5%, 0.7%, 3.7% last

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • N/A ECB's Constancio participates in a meeting - Brussels
    • N/A EU Economic and Financial Affairs meeting - Brussels
    • 09:30 Record of financial policy meeting held on Nov 22 - London
    • 14:00 Riksbank's Stefan will speak at a conference - Stockholm
    • 15:00 Senate banking committee vote meetinG for Fed chair - Washington
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events


     
    Dublin 4 likes this.
  2. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    16,085
    Trophy Points:
    313
     
    Dublin 4 likes this.
  3. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    16,085
    Trophy Points:
    313
    For fans of our Dow Jones coverage, there are some issues with that site at the moment. Hopefully things will sort out before long.
     
    Dublin 4 likes this.
  4. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Una and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  5. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313
    Una, Kershaw and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  6. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
    Kershaw and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  7. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313


    [​IMG]
     
    Una, Kershaw and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  8. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313


    [​IMG]
     
    Una and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  9. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313

    [​IMG]
     
    Una, Kershaw and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  10. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    16,085
    Trophy Points:
    313
    Message body


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2017
    TOP NEWS

    "Deadline of deadlines" in Brexit divorce talks this week
    Theresa May must deliver her offer on a Brexit divorce package this week if she wants EU leaders to grant Britain's request for talks on future free trade when they meet next week, EU diplomats and officials said. Failure could mean a delay until February, adding to the risk of businesses scaling back investment plans in Britain as uncertainty clouds the outlook beyond Brexit in March 2019. Additionally, UK finance minister Philip Hammond commented that Britain will need a "new paradigm" to sell financial services to the EU after Brexit as existing trade deals the EU has with foreign countries do not go far enough.

    EU exec to propose deeper euro zone integration to unite EU
    The European Commission will propose deeper euro zone integration that would help unite the broader EU rather than just the single currency area. The Commission is likely to say that the European finance minister, a post that would only be set up in 2025, should be in charge of overseeing structural reform efforts and coordinating economic and fiscal policy in the euro area. The Commission is also likely to call for a swift completion of the EU's banking union by setting up a Europe-wide bank deposit insurance scheme, something that Germany insists can only happen after the bad loans on banks' books fall sharply.

    BOJ's Masai advocates sticking with "powerful easing", warns on side-effects
    Bank of Japan board member Takako Masai on Wednesday advocated sticking with ultra-easy monetary policy due to uncertainty over how fast inflation will rise, while warning that the central bank should remain on guard against the possible side-effects. Despite a strengthening economy, Masai conceded that it was taking longer than expected to eradicate Japan's sticky deflationary mindset, or public perceptions that prices won't rise ahead. Separately, Japan's economy was expected to expand slightly faster in the third quarter than first estimated, a poll found, buoyed by strong capital spending and showing robust exports and business investment supporting the economy.


    EU adopts tax haven blacklist, British territories spared
    EU finance ministers adopted a blacklist of 17 jurisdictions deemed as tax havens in an unprecedented step to counter worldwide tax avoidance, although they did not agree on financial levies for the listed countries. Blacklisted countries may no longer be used by EU institutions for international financial operations, and transactions involving them could be subject to closer scrutiny. EU states have not been screened and will not be on the list. The commission said none of the 28 members of the bloc can be classified as a tax haven, as all have agreed to respect EU tax standards.

    PREVIEW - China Nov data to show economy facing pressure from debt, pollution crackdowns
    A raft of Chinese data in coming weeks is expected to show the world's second-largest economy came under growing pressure in November as the government intensified crackdowns on polluting industries and financial risks. Besides ramped-up efforts to shut down factories in some provinces to reduce winter smog, authorities unveiled fresh regulatory measures last month for the financial sector, clamping down on high-risk lending and halting some dubious infrastructure projects that would swell local governments' debt. Economists believe such measures will lead to a slight moderation in China's growth in the fourth quarter to around 6.7 percent, after a forecast-beating 6.9 percent in the first nine months of the year.


    BREAKINGVIEWS

    Brexit deal hinges on enlightened obfuscation

    Obfuscation offers the only hope of a breakthrough in deadlocked Brexit talks. Prime Minister Theresa May’s best hope is to fudge tough decisions, and use the threat of a chaotic exit – or another election – to quash dissent.

    ANALYSIS

    Regulatory angst curbs investor appetite for European banks
    Uncertainty about the timing and scope of regulatory efforts to strengthen Europe's financial system is adding to investor caution about increasing exposure to European over U.S. banks, even as the economy and earnings improve.

    Buy sterling on a "Brexit breakthrough"? Not yet, say investors
    Sterling investors remain hesitant about chasing the rallying pound higher even as the British government said it was close to an agreement with the European Union on how to move Brexit talks onto trade next year.


    CHART OF THE DAY
    [​IMG]


    MORNING MEETING

    RISK OFF, JGB'S STEADY


    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    US Treasury 10s indicated 2.348%, JGB 10s 0.052%, Bund 10s 0.309%
    • US-Japan-Germany respective 2s indicated 1.812%, -0.142%, -0.780%
    • JGBs steady but stuck in narrow range
    • Weakness in short-end JGBs stalls on some dip-buying
    • 6mo auction better than feared; stop at -0.1382%, -0.11% some had thought
    • JGB futures move in narrow 150.84/150.94 range
    • Large offers at 150.95 cap upside
    • At 150.89, futures up 2 ticks on day
    • Tokyo risk off, Nikkei from 22,528 to 22,234, at 22,248 -1.7% on day
    • AXJ down too - SSEC 0.6%, HSI 1.25%, KOSPI 0.9%, STI 0.6% and TWI 1.5%
    • ASX and NZX50 off too, around 0.5% each
    • Commodities weak, Dalian iron ore -2.4%, Shanghai rubber -3.2%
    • Tokyo rubber down too after overnight copper and gold plunges

    Currency Summaries
    JPY

    • Risk-off in Asia, USD/JPY, JPY crosses Nikkei all down, US yields soggy
    • USD/JPY from early 112.62 high to 112.19 before steadying
    • USD633 mln in option expiries at 112.25-30 bypassed on way down
    • More below though, supportive - 112.00 USD598 mln, 111.75-80 1.1 bln
    • Market heavy from 5-DMA at 112.76, daily Ichi kijun 112.79
    • Ascending 100-HMA at 112.55 pierced, 112.24 base of hourly Ichi cloud too
    • Risk-off sentiment, long liquidation felt in most JPY crosses too
    • EUR/JPY 133.19 to 132.70, breaks below ascending 200-HMA at 133.00
    • Also back in daily Ichi cloud, top 132.98, 55-DMA below at 132.70
    • GBP/JPY from 151.99 NY retracement high to 151.44 Asia open and then 150.59
    • On top of Brexit no-deal, reports of Cabinet revolt
    • AUD/JPY reverses course after move to 86.19 yesterday, Asia 85.68 to 85.05
    • Move down exacerbated by weaker than eyed GDP data
    • NZD/JPY steady between 77.26-50 but downtrend since September 21 intact
    • Nikkei off 1.6% at writing at 22,260, US Treasury 10s @2.348%

    EUR

    • EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.1826 after falling as low as 1.1800 in NY
    • The EUR/USD was sidelined during the Asian session and traded 1.1817/48
    • Technical support is found at 1.1795/1.1800 where 21 & 100 day MAs converge
    • Resistance at yesterday's 1.1876 high and break above eased downward pressure
    • Key to direction will be US/DE yield spread in the 2 to 5 year yields
    • German Industrial Orders and US ADP jobs data out today

    GBP

    • Cable steady in Asia despite Brexit no-deal, reports of Cabinet revolt
    • Asia range 1.3405-43, support ahead of 1.3400, ascending 200-HMA 1.3411 now
    • Upside likely limited on political to-do; Asia risk-off
    • Below 1.3400, support from pre-1.3350 - low yesterday 1.3370, 11/29 1.3341
    • EUR/GBP Asia 0.8799-0.8825, steady, mostly above 200-DMA at 0.8800

    CHF
    • USD/CHF steady in Asia, 0.9865-82, near 0.9888 high yesterday
    • Flat daily Ichi kijun 0.9887, top of daily Ichi cloud 0.9876
    • Flat hourly Ichi kijun 0.9863, ascending 55-DMA below at 0.9843
    • EUR/CHF in tight 1.1671-85 range in Asia, quiet, few flows, little interest
    • On hold just below recent highs, trend high Friday 1.1737

    Market Briefs
    • Trump to recognise Jerusalem as Israel capital, upending decades of U.S. policy
    • Trump lawyer denies Deutsche Bank got subpoena on Trump accounts
    • US House tax positions begin to emerge ahead of talks with Senate
    • US Democrats flex muscles as Congress confronts a government shutdown
    • Australian citizenship threatens government with nine more MPs in doubt
    • AU Q3 GDP q/q, 0.6%, 0.8% last, f'cast 0.7%, 0.9% rvsd
    • AU Q3 GDP y/y, 2.8%, 1.8% last, f'cast 3.0%
    • Bitcoin surges above $12,000 to record high on relentless demand
    • "Deadline of deadlines" in Brexit divorce talks this week
    • Plot to kill British premier May foiled- Sky News
    • Britain needs "new paradigm" for financial services trade with EU - Hammond
    • EU exec to propose deeper euro zone integration to unite EU on Wed
    • BoJ Policy Board Masai sticks to Kuroda majority line, economy/CPI to rise
    • Current policy appropriate but some concerns over QQE side-effects, CPI
    • Foreign direct investment in Japan notched record in '16 - Nikkei
    • Japan to help finance China's Belt and Road project - Nikkei

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

    • 07:00 DE Oct Industrial Orders m/m, f' cast -0.3%, 1.0% last

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)

    • N/A ECB Governing council meeting - Frankfurt
    • N/A ECB's Juncker speaks on ESM fund bailout - Brussels
    • 07:30 Riksbank's Ohlsson speaks at a seminar - Stockholm
    • 10:30 ECB's Mersch speaks at a conference - Frankfurt
    • 11:00 Riksbank's Jansson speaks at a seminar - Stockholm
    • 15:00 Bank of Canada key policy rate announcement - Ottawa
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events

    AUD/USD to be capped by weak consumer spending

    Australia's Q3 GDP was weaker than forecast, but at +2.8% year on year it still satisfied the 'trend growth' that the RBA was hoping for. What will concern the RBA is the weak consumer spending component of the GDP. Consumer spending edged up just 0.1% against expectations of +0.4%. The RBA has been fretting over the high household debt, rising house prices in some capital cities, weak wage growth and the potential negative impact it will have on the consumer. While those worries persist, the RBA won't even consider moving towards a tightening bias. The 2-year Australian yield has fallen 6 BPs today to 1.79% and is 3 BPs lower than the 2-year US Treasury yield, which trades at 1.82%. The AUD/USD will have trouble sustaining any rallies while the differential between the US and Australian 2-year yield widens in favour of the USD.
     
    Dublin 4 likes this.
  11. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    16,085
    Trophy Points:
    313
     
    Dublin 4 likes this.
  12. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313
    Una, Kershaw and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  13. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313




    [​IMG]
     
    Una and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  14. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313


    [​IMG]
     
    Una and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  15. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] Nitey nitey Greek Freekz :sleep:
     
    Una, Kershaw and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  16. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313
    Una and Tadhg Gaelach like this.
  17. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    16,085
    Trophy Points:
    313
    Message body


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    THURSDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2017
    TOP NEWS

    EU parliament details UK concessions on rights
    Britain will guarantee rights for as yet unborn children who join EU parents after Brexit and accept EU judges' rulings on such rights, according to a draft European Parliament resolution seen by Reuters. The document, drafted on Monday for a vote next week before an EU summit that may launch talks on a future EU-UK free trade pact, also confirms that Prime Minister Theresa May has secured agreement from Brussels that British citizens in the EU will be able to live freely in any member state after Brexit. Setting out demands for the new phase of negotiations to be launched at the Dec. 15 summit if May confirms her offers, the parliament stressed that any transition period -- of "not more than three years" -- to avoid a "cliff edge scenario" depends on a deal on the whole divorce package and would mean Britain being bound by all EU structures while no longer having a say on them.

    U.S. Senate votes to pursue tax bill negotiations with House
    U.S. Senate Republicans agreed to talks with the House of Representatives on sweeping tax legislation, amid early signs that lawmakers could bridge their differences and agree on a final bill ahead of a self-imposed Dec. 22 deadline. While there are significant differences between the House and Senate bills, both would cut the U.S. corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent, provide tax relief for "pass-through" enterprises including small businesses where earnings are taxed at individual rates, and both benefit the wealthiest Americans and reduce the tax burden for most middle-class taxpayers. Republicans claim the legislation will spur enough economic growth to pay for the tax cuts with new revenue, but the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that Senate bill would still add $1 trillion to the federal budget deficit over a decade, even with an economic upswing.

    Britain has not formally assessed impact of Brexit on economy -Brexit minister
    Britain has not conducted formal sector-by-sector analyses of the impact that leaving the EU will have on the economy, Brexit minister David Davis said, arguing they were not necessary yet. His remarks drew immediate criticism from lawmakers on the committee, who said Davis was contradicting his previous statement that the government had analyses of the sectoral impact that went into "excruciating detail". Meanwhile, lawmakers from the House of Lords EU committee said that Britain will fail to agree a free trade deal with the EU before it plans to leave the bloc in 2019 and should seek a transition period to avoid a worst-case scenario of crashing out without an agreement."


    BOJ's Kuroda signals chance of rate hikes, warns of demerits of easing
    Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stressed the need to look at the impact monetary policy has on the banking system and said changes in the economy could trigger a hike in the bank's yield targets, offering the strongest signal to date it may edge away from its crisis-mode stimulus programme. Kuroda said that while it was premature to debate specifics now, the BOJ's future communication would focus on how to exit from quantitative easing without disrupting financial markets. Separately, confidence among Japanese manufacturers held firm in December and service-sector sentiment rose for a second straight month, the Reuters Tankan poll showed, underscoring steady economic growth driven by both external and domestic demand.

    China's growth objectives clash with financial stability goal - IMF
    China should prioritise financial stability above development goals, as pursuit of regional growth targets and helping firms avoid heavy job losses had led to a surge in debt, particularly at local government level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. Noting a lack of coordination and inadequate systemic risk analysis in a report, the IMF also recommended the formation of a financial stability sub-committee comprising the central bank and three financial regulatory agencies, and an increase in staff for the banking watchdog. The People's Bank of China reacted swiftly to the report's release, saying that while the report is objective and pertinent, the assessment "does not the whole picture."


    BREAKINGVIEWS

    France and Germany look too alike to bond markets
    The gap between benchmark French and German bond yields this week shrank to its smallest since 2009, before the countries that share the single currency were hit by financial shocks that threatened monetary union itself. Such indiscrimination is premature, and stores up fresh problems.


    ANALYSIS AND COLUMN

    Breaking slow: Asia set to raise rates next year, but still lag Fed
    Tighter monetary policy is coming to Asia next year. Yet it will lag the Federal Reserve's rate hikes as Asian central banks balance an exports-led revival in growth with a slowdown in regional locomotive China.

    [color=#006699][URL='[URL="http://content.emails.thomsonreuters.biz/emessageIRS/servlet/IRSL?v=5&a=10111&r=201470&m=85&l=11&e=2&x=2458186.0"]Breaking slow: Asia set to raise rates next year, but still lag Fed[/URL]'][/URL]
    [URL='[URL="http://content.emails.thomsonreuters.biz/emessageIRS/servlet/IRSL?v=5&a=10111&r=201470&m=85&l=12&e=2&x=2458186.0"]Bitcoin to start futures trading, stoking Wild West worries[/URL]']Bitcoin to start futures trading, stoking Wild West worries[/URL][/color]

    Bitcoin fans are salivating over the potential of long-awaited legitimacy for the cyptocurrency when futures trading launches this weekend, but experts worry the risks associated with bitcoin's Wild West-like nature could overshadow the debut.

    Behind wage and productivity clouds, world economy is booming
    The dark clouds of stagnant wages, widening inequality and chronic productivity across much of the Western world are shrouding one of the most remarkable and easily forgotten facts of the year - the world economy is booming.


    CHART OF THE DAY
    [IMG]http://share.thomsonreuters.com/assets/newsletters/TMB_Europe/Chart/COD_12072017.jpg[/IMG]


    MORNING MEETING

    JGB CURVE FLATTENS ON GOOD 30YR SALE


    BONDS, EQUITIES, OTHER ASSET MARKETS
    US Treasury 10s indicated 2.345%, JGB 10s 0.053%, Bund 10s 0.306%
    • US-Japan-Germany respective 2s indicated 1.808%, -0.142%, -0.787%
    • JGB yield curve flattens as 30yr auction goes well
    • 30yr auction stops at 0.85%, BTC 4.38, tail 0.2, 3.43/1.1bp last
    • 40yr yields off 1.5bp after 30yr auction
    • Dec/Mar calendar spread widens from 0.05 early to 0.07, good volume
    • Dec futures unch at 150.91, range 150.92/150.84
    • Nikkei gaps up at open on bargain-hunting, 22,317 to 22,474
    • At 22,435, +258 points or 1.2%, half of losses yesterday recovered
    • AXJ mixed - SSEC -0.6%, KOSPI -0.8%, STI -0.4%, TWI -0.3%
    • ASX +0.6% and NZX50 +0.5%, HSI holding just above par on day
    • Dalian iron ore -3.4%, Tokyo rubber -1.3%

    Currency Summaries
    JPY
    • Risk back on with Nikkei up over 1% on day, JPY mixed however
    • USD/JPY from early 112.21 low to 112.49 before topping out, Japan buys
    • Option expiries help cap, USD570 mln 112.50-60, supportive below though
    • Total USD1.8 bln between 111.90-112.20 strikes, bids ahead
    • Steadier after bounce from daily Ichi tankan, area of 200-HMA yesterday
    • Daily Ichi tankan flat, at 111.97, low yesterday 111.99, 200-HMA 112.09
    • EUR/JPY bounces from 132.26 low yesterday, Asia 132.49-71
    • Back to 55-DMA at 132.66, daily Ichi tankan 132.76, cloud top 132.98
    • Cross essentially in 131.16-134.50 range since mid/late-September
    • GBP/JPY up some from 149.71 low yesterday, Asia 150.11-53, risk still down
    • AUD/JPY soggy, trade data miss helps, Asia 84.80-85.04, bias down
    • NZD/JPY soggy too, bounce to 77.42 met by sales, fall to 77.06

    EUR
    • EUR/USD opened Asia 0.25% lower at 1.1796 - third day of lower daily low
    • It was very quiet for the EUR/USD in Asia with light flows changing hands
    • EUR/USD traded in a 1.1792/1.1805 range & was near the top into the afternoon
    • EUR/USD is tending lower in short-term but momentum lower is fairly weak
    • The price is hanging around 1.1800/05 where 21 & 100-day MAs converge
    • Next support is at 50% of 1.1553/1.1961 move at 1.1757
    • A break back above 1.1850 would relieve the downward pressure
    • EZ GDP and German Industrial Output is out later today

    GBP
    • Cable soggy in Asia, 1.3375-97, holding above 1.3358 low yesterday
    • Talk stops building sub-1.3350, Fibo 38.2% of October-December rise
    • 50% retracement of 1.3027-1.3550 10/6-12/1 move at 1.3288
    • GBP to remain hostage to news regarding Brexit
    • EUR/GBP stationary in Asia, indicated at 0.8812, 200-DMA 0.8801

    Market Briefs
    • Bitcoin rises above $14,000 on Bitstamp to record high
    • China's growth objectives clash with financial stability goal - IMF
    • BoJ Gov Kuroda - Sticks to script, QQE/YCC working, sustainable
    • JP economy doing better, optimistic on achieving CPI target
    • Japan to spend Y2.9 trln on policy efforts in supplementary budget -Nikkei
    • JP Dec Reuters Tankan mfg index +27, non-mfg +34, Nov +27, +31 Mar +28, +31
    • End-Nov foreign reserves Y1.261 trln, -$317 mln from October
    • MoF flow data week-ended 12/2 - Japanese buy net Y603.9 bln foreign stocks
    • Y208.1 bln for-bonds, Y56.9 bln for-bills sold, foreigners sell Japan stks
    • Net Y167.1 bln sold, also Y1.0169 trln bills, Y221.8 bln JGBs bought
    • Fitch - Japan GDP +1.5% in '17, +1.3% in '18, longest expansion since '01?
    • U.S. Senate votes to pursue tax bill negotiations with House
    • Trump's eldest son questioned in U.S. Congress about Russia
    • EU parliament details UK concessions on rights
    • Britain to propose new language on Irish border, Irish PM says
    • Germany's SPD leader to ask rank-and-file to back new government
    • AU Oct Trade Balance G&S (A$) 105 mln, 1,745 mln last, f'cast 1.375 mln, 1.604 mln rvsd

    Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
    • 07:00 DE Oct Industrial Output m/m, f'cast 1.0%, -1.6% last
    • 08:30 GB Nov Halifax House Prices m/m, f'cast 0.2%, 0.3% last
    • 08:30 GB Halifax House Price 3m, y/y, f'cast 3.9%, last 4.5%
    • 10:00 EZ Q3 GDP Revised q/q, f'cast 0.6%, 0.6% last
    • 10:00 EZ GDP Revised y/y, f'cast 2.5%, 2.5% last

    Looking Ahead - Events, Auctions, Other Releases (GMT)
    • 07:00 Riksbank's Floden speaks at a conference - Stockholm
    • 08:00 ECB General council meeting - Frankfurt
    • 09:00 Riksbank's Skingsley takes part in a conference - Paris
    • 13:30 Fed's Dudley speaks at an event - New York
    • 15:00 ECB's Draghi holds a news conference - Frankfurt
    See North American Open for a detailed listing of US/NorAm releases, events


     
  18. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    16,085
    Trophy Points:
    313
  19. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313


    [​IMG]
     
    Una likes this.
  20. OP
    Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish Political Irish

    Likes Received:
    10,608
    Trophy Points:
    313
    Kershaw and Una like this.