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Hot Reuters Morning Benchmark \ Dow Jones Morning Briefing

Discussion in 'World Economy' started by Tadhg Gaelach, Oct 17, 2016.

  1. Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    Last edited: Oct 19, 2016
  2. Earnán Ó Maille

    Earnán Ó Maille Respected Member Banned

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    Sinn Féin supporters will be delighted. One visit from Clinton will push SF to the centre, and I can't see the possibility of the United Left Alliance mounting a challenge to Netflix, never mind the Bank of America..
     
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  3. OP
    Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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  4. anderson

    anderson Respected Member Political Irish

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    How close are we to financial meltdown do you reckon Tadhg?
     
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  5. OP
    Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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    I don't think we are very near to that. What we have is stagnation. The buzzword is Secular Stagnation, meaning that we have stagnated at the recession phase of the economic cycle between boom and bust.

    A lot of Deutsche Bank's problem (besides it own corruption and incompetence) is the fact that interest rates have been so low for so long. At the end of the day, banks live on interest. As Alan Greenspan has said several times, the basic problem is aging population. Older people already have their homes and have reared their children, so they don't need to spend so much as young people setting up home do. Giving older people low interest rates is unlikely to get them to spend more. That means we are going to have low or zero growth rates until that demographic reality changes. They are trying to do that with mass immigration, but that is causing far more problems than it is solving. We may have inter-racial war in Europe and North America as well as zero or negative growth. It's interesting that one of the leaked Hillary e-mails admits this.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2016
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    Tadhg Gaelach

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  7. Dublin 4

    Dublin 4 Legend Political Irish

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    Great to see China building more Ghost Cities- that'll help...
     
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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Tadhg Gaelach

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  10. smurftool

    smurftool Legend Donator Battle Royale Political Irish

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    Maybe they should rehome the Syrians?
     
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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Wednesday, 26th October, 2016.

    Reuters page not working for me this morning, so here's this morning's update from Dow Jones:

    Dow Jones Newswires , 26 October 2016 12:00
    European Morning Briefing: Draghi Defends ECB Policies
    Snapshot:
    ========
    Stocks to edge lower; EUR/USD 1.0888-91; bonds seen steady; Brent crude $50.26; gold $1275.50
    -Draghi Defends ECB's Easy-Money Policies
    -Carney Says Markets Shouldn't Expect Change in Bank of England's Goals
    -Volkswagen's $14.7 Billion Buyback Deal on Emissions Scandal Approved
    -U.K. To Send Formidable Force to Eastern Europe
    -EU Approves Increased Gazprom Use of Opal Pipeline: Sources
    -Deutsche Bank Considering Alternatives to Cash Bonuses-Bloomberg
    -Apple Profit and Revenue Slide as it Copes With Slumping iPhone Sales
    -U.K. Weighs On Europe Print-Advertising Decline
    Watch For: German GfK survey; British Bankers Association figures; earnings from Airbus, Bayer, Boeing, Coca-Cola, GlaxoSmithKline, Heineken, Iberdrola, Santander, Tesla Motors; Lloyds Banking trading update
    Headline News:
    =============
    European Central Bank President Mario Draghi defended the central bank's easy-money policies on Tuesday, arguing that ultralow interest rates haven't harmed German households and stressing that the ECB would keep its policies in place until it reaches its inflation target.
    The comments will reinforce expectations that the ECB plans to boost its EUR1.7 trillion bond-purchase program at its next policy meeting in early December. The program is currently due to expire in March.
    "We remain committed to preserving the very substantial degree of monetary [easing] which is necessary to secure" the ECB's goal of keeping inflation just below 2%, Mr. Draghi said in a lecture in Berlin.
    Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said Tuesday participants in financial markets have no reason to expect a change in the central bank's inflation-fighting remit.
    Mr. Carney said in testimony to parliament the BOE's inflation and financial stability goals have "stood the test of time," and added if those objectives were to be called into question it could have consequences for U.K. assets including sterling and government bonds, as well as expectations of future inflation.
    "Markets should have no reason to expect that," he said, as parliament hasn't discussed changing the BOE's remit.
    The U.K. said it would deploy tanks and drones alongside 800 troops in Eastern Europe, the first of several expected moves by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to help counter growing fears about Russia in the region.
    The U.K. troops will deploy next spring and be joined in Estonia by forces from France and Denmark, said Michael Fallon, the British defense secretary said. The force, he said, will likely include tactical drones, Challenger 2 main battle tanks and Warrior armored infantry fighting vehicles.
    Uncertainty in the U.K. is contributing to the decline of print-advertising investment in Europe this year, according to a report from credit rating agency Moody's on Wednesday, as businesses in the country grapple with the country's vote to leave the European Union.
    In the report, it said print-advertising spend in Europe is seen falling 6% year-over-year in 2016, weighed down by an 8.7% decline in the U.K. Other European markets are showing lower rates of decline, with Germany and Spain at 4.6% and 2.3%, respectively.
    Stocks:
    ======
    European markets face minor losses on Wednesday with FTSE 100 futures down 13 points and DAX futures down 6.
    Shares in Asia were broadly lower, tracking declines on Wall Street after a spate of disappointing earnings reports and weaker-than-expected economic data.
    The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index was off 0.2%.
    Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 1.5%, falling to its lowest level in a month, leading the region's declines as economic data boosted the local dollar amidst weakness in financial and commodity stocks.
    U.S. stocks fell Tuesday, with consumer-discretionary shares leading losses after a string of disappointing earnings reports.
    "We're seeing positive but not spectacular growth," said Jon Adams, senior investment strategist at BMO Global Asset Management. "It looks like we might see some modest growth this quarter, so we're off to a good start."
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 declined 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5%.
    Corporate News:
    ==============
    Volkswagen received final court approval Tuesday of a $14.7 billion deal reached with consumers and government agencies that could get nearly half a million dirty diesel vehicles off U.S. roads.
    The deal offers drivers of 475,000 Volkswagen diesel-powered vehicles with 2-liter engines the option of selling back their cars to Volkswagen or waiting for a government-approved fix that would allow the cars to stay on the road. The deal, which sets aside up to $10.033 billion for consumers, also offers additional cash payments of between $5,100 and $10,000 per person.
    Deutsche Bank is considering alternatives to paying cash bonuses, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
    Options include giving shares of Deutsche Bank or its non-core unit, Bloomberg reported.
    Forex:
    =====
    EUR/USD may find support around 1.0850 Wednesday, said Akira Moroga, manager of forex products group at Aozora Bank.
    "The euro's downside is getting firmer. That's a sign expectations for [ECB] easing are not so strong," said Mr. Moroga, who tips the EUR/USD resistance at 1.0920.
    EUR/USD managed to bounce back after hitting an intraday low of 1.0851 in the U.S. after Mario Draghi said the central bank doesn't want rates to stay negative for a protracted period. Investors are now awaiting U.S. September housing sales later Wednesday, but any impact on EUR/USD is unlikely unless there is a huge difference from street forecasts, said Mr. Moroga.
    The dollar pared gains Tuesday, as weak U.S. economic data pushed some investors to take profits on the currency's recent gains.
    The dollar "was looking rich," analysts at BNP Paribas said in a note to clients. "A softer-than-expected Conference Board...reading and a modest pullback in equity markets seem to have been sufficient to generate a dollar retreat."
    Nevertheless, confidence remains high that the Federal Reserve is getting close to raising interest rates. Federal-funds futures, used to bet on central bank policy, on Tuesday showed that investors assigned a 78.5% likelihood of a rate increase in December, up from around 50% in the middle of September. Expectations of higher rates tend to boost the dollar, as they make the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
    More evidence of a strong economy came earlier in the session, when a report showed that U.S. home prices rose to near-record levels in August, helped by low interest rates and a lack of inventory.
    After a string of solid U.S. data, investors "believe the economy may have finally shifted into a higher gear," said Joe Manimbo, an analyst at Western Union. "The market is gaining conviction that there is a clear path for the Fed to raise rates this year."
    Bonds:
    =====
    Prices of short-term U.S. government bonds pulled back on Tuesday after a two-year note auction drew lackluster demand.
    Over all demand for the $26 billion sale of two-year notes fell to the lowest level since July. Analysts say high expectation of an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve in December dented investors' appetites. Yields on short-term Treasury debt are highly sensitive to the Fed's policy outlook.

    The yield on the two-year note rose to 0.856% from 0.840% Monday.
    "The market is clearly saying that more-of-the-same in terms of muddling growth should be enough to keep the Fed on course for their desired path of normalization," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets
    The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 1.758% from 1.763% Monday.
    Energy:
    ======
    Oil prices were falling in early Asia trade after data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a much larger-than-expected build in the U.S. crude stocks in the week of Oct 21.
    The group reported a 4.8-million barrel increase in crude, a 1.7-million-barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 900,000-barrel decline in distillates. Analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal tipped for a 2.1-million barrels build in crude.

    "The data is bearish relative to expectations," said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst. Official data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration will be released later Wednesday.
    At 0227 GMT, Nymex was down 61 cents or 1.2% to $49.34 a barrel, while Brent was down 53 cents or 1.0% at $50.26 a barrel.

    The European Commission on Tuesday authorized Russia's Gazprom to ship more gas through a key connector pipeline in Germany, two people familiar with the matter said, a sign that Russia and the European Union are mending their business relationships despite growing tensions over Moscow's bombing campaign in Syria.

    Tuesday's deal on Gazprom's Opal pipeline comes as the commission nears a settlement of its antitrust charges against the company, on which a preliminary agreement could be announced as early as Friday, according to the people.
    Metals:
    ======
    Gold prices were higher in Asia on a weaker dollar and a stronger yen.
    Investments in gold held in Exchange Traded Funds also continue to rise, said ANZ Bank. It said that India is at the height of its Diwali festival, when gold purchases usually surge. Expectations about the Fed increasing interest rates in December have also moderated.
    At 0240 GMT, gold was $1.65 higher at $1,275.50/oz.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2016
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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Tadhg Gaelach

    Tadhg Gaelach Legend Political Irish Donator Battle Royale

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  18. OP
    Tadhg Gaelach

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  19. FISH

    FISH New Member Political Irish

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    The omens have been bleak now for some time and many good commentators like Martin Armstrong have been warning that the whole bonds, equities and currency markets could, and likely will explode at some point. The problem is though that because of the insane levels of money printing when the musical chairs stops is anyone's guess.

    For those of you paying into defined contribution pension schemes this makes managing them a pain in the butt, as most of these schemes allow one to make selections as to their preferred investments from their money.

    So what do you do?

    Cash has zero if any additional returns (though call me old fashioned but I personally prefer to elect most of my contributions to this)
    Equities & bonds are an accident waiting to happen but in order to get any return over and above cash, one is kind of corralled into diverting some of their funds into these.

    Damned if you do; Damned if you don't. Christ, it would give you a headache.
     
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    Tadhg Gaelach

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    Dow Jones Newswires , 1 November 2016 12:51
    European Morning Briefing: Mixed Start for Stocks Despite Upbeat China Data
    Snapshot:
    ========
    Stocks seen mixed; EUR/USD 1.0959-62; bonds seen steady; Brent crude $48.89; gold $1277.16
    -China Manufacturing Index Highest in More Than Two Years
    -Bank of Japan Keeps Policy Steady, But Trims Inflation Forecasts
    -Clinton on New FBI Email Inquiry: 'There Is No Case Here'
    -Relevant Emails in Clinton Probe Could Be Identified by Election Day, Experts Say
    -BOE's Carney to Extend Term to Stay On Through Brexit
    -Australia's RBA Keeps Rates Unchanged at 1.50%
    -Saudi King Appoints New Finance Minister
    Watch For: U.K. manufacturing PMI; U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI; earnings from BP, Pfizer, Royal Dutch Shell, Shire, Standard Chartered
    Headline News:
    =============
    China's industrial sector picked up last month, with an official gauge of factory activity rising to its highest level in two years, driven by higher commodity prices and a property boom that are stabilizing the wobbly economy.
    China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index increased to 51.2 in October from September's 50.4. The reading, the third straight month of expansion, beat a median forecast of 50.3 by 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The index has remained at or above the 50 mark that separates expansion and contraction for seven out of the last eight months.
    "It's really good ... generally it's very encouraging," said Margaret Yang, market analyst at CMC Markets, about the official manufacturing PMI data. "I think that it's going to provide support for industrial metals."
    The Bank of Japan revised down its inflation forecasts Tuesday following a raft of poor data, but held off expanding stimulus in a sign that Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda has set the bar much higher for taking action.
    At the end of a two-day meeting, the first since a broad policy revamp in September, the central bank's board voted to keep its new anchor for 10-year government bond yields at zero, according to a statement. The BOJ also left its target for a short-term interest rate on some commercial bank deposits at minus 0.1%.
    Instead, the bank pushed back its forecast date for hitting 2% inflation to around fiscal 2018. Previously the bank said it would reach its target in fiscal 2017.
    Hillary Clinton on Monday rebuked the Federal Bureau of Investigation for reactivating an investigation into her email practices, declaring there was "no case here" and calling into question the agency's motives in doing so days before the presidential election.
    "I'm sure a lot of you may be asking what this new email story is about, and why in the world the FBI would decide to jump into the election with no evidence of any wrongdoing with just days to go," she said as she opened her remarks at a rally at Kent State University. "That's a good question."
    Mrs. Clinton said she was confident the FBI -- which is preparing to scour 650,000 emails found on the laptop seized in a separate probe of former Rep. Anthony Weiner, the estranged husband of top Clinton aide Huma Abedin -- would reach the same conclusion it did when it closed its investigation into her email practices over the summer.
    "There is no case here," she said.
    Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney plans to serve an extra year as head of the British central bank, in a surprise compromise meant to allow him to steer the U.K.'s economy beyond its exit from the European Union.
    In a letter to Treasury chief Philip Hammond on Monday, Mr. Carney said that he would be "honored" to serve as governor until June 2019 -- a year longer than he initially pledged to remain as central bank governor but still two years short of a full eight-year term.
    Stocks:
    ======
    European markets are forecast to open mixed with FTSE 100 futures down 7 points but DAX futures up 22 points.
    Asian markets were mixed Tuesday after the release of encouraging purchasing managers index data from China and ahead of policy news from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan.
    Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was trading up 1.2% and the Shanghai Composite was up 0.4%. Both are getting a lift from the release of better-than-expected official manufacturing PMI data coming out of China. Japan's Nikkei was down slightly at 0.2%, weighed down by weak earnings news.
    U.S. stocks fell Monday, capping a month of declines for major indexes. The Dow industrials fell 0.1%, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index edged down less than 0.1%.
    "Volumes are much lighter than usual," said John Brady, managing director at brokerage R.J. O'Brien, continuing a trend of slow trading in recent weeks.
    Better-than-expected earnings results have pulled in some investors, but "I'm not sure if anything is going to be a bigger deal this week than who runs the country for the next four years," Mr. Brady said.
    Forex:
    =====
    EUR/USD will likely struggle to break above a 1.0850-1.1000 range as the week progresses, said IG Securities market analyst Junichi Ishikawa.
    Ahead of the U.S. presidential election, this week's Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to cause a big dollar move. Instead, headlines on the Hillary Clinton email investigation and U.S. indicators such as ISM manufacturing index out Tuesday and jobs data on Friday will be in focus. Even if EUR/USD successfully breaks above the 1.10 mark, the pair's downtrend will likely take hold again unless it breaches 1.1015, a high reached in the middle of October, he said.
    The Fed will release its latest interest-rate decision at the close of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, but few expect the central bank to raise borrowing costs ahead of the Nov. 8 presidential election.
    "The Fed will be closely watched given expectations that the Fed will signal its intent to hike rates in December," wrote analysts at TD Securities in a research note. "We look for changes to the language that indicate 'further evidence' of progress but do not expect an explicit discussion of a hike next month."
    Fed-funds futures, a popular tool for betting on central-bank policy, show that investors assign a 73% likelihood of a rate increase in December, according to CME Group data.
    At 0350 GMT, USD/JPY was 104.88-89, EUR/USD was 1.0959-62 and GBP/USD was 1.2229-31.
    Bonds:
    =====
    U.S. government bonds closed out a dismal month by edging higher Monday as investors ventured back into the market ahead of a busy few days of economic releases and central bank meetings.
    In late-afternoon trading, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 1.834%, compared with 1.847% Friday and 1.605% at the end of September.
    Bonds were bolstered Monday by technical factors. At the end of each month, newly minted bonds replace maturing debt in bond market indices, and fund managers who track those indices need to replicate the adjustments by buying bonds. Analysts also said uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election may be providing modest support for government bonds, which are treated as haven assets by investors.
    Even so, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note registered its largest monthly increase since June 2015, having reached a five-month high Friday.
    Despite Monday's reprieve, bond investors should be prepared for more price declines, said David Keeble, head of U.S. rates strategy at Crédit Agricole in New York.
    With signs of rising inflation and wages, "everything is coming in according to plan almost in terms of the economy," he said.
    Energy:
    ======
    Crude oil prices clawed back losses in Asia, driven by bargain-hunting, but market participants were mostly downbeat as the prospect of a production cut by major oil-producing nations remains dim.
    On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at $46.95 a barrel at 0314 GMT, up $0.09 in the Globex electronic session. January Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.28 to $48.89 a barrel.
    Oil prices are struggling to return to more than $50 a barrel, as investors don't expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their non-member peers to reach an accord by the end of this month to scale back production.
    Market participants have mostly priced in a "no-deal" outcome from the meeting on Nov. 30, the date set by OPEC officials for the ratification of an accord to cut the group's production by 200,000 to 700,000 barrels a day.
    Metals:
    ======
    Gold was little changed ahead of the FOMC statement Wednesday, which is likely to indicate whether there will be a rate rise in December.
    The near term direction of gold is also likely to depend on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due Friday. At 0227 GMT, gold was trading $0.41 higher at $1,277.16/oz
     
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