Mark Carney leads Liberals to a stunning victory, capitalizing on anti-Trump sentiment to secure a fourth term, despite falling short of a majority.
In a remarkable turnaround, Canada’s Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has won the 2025 federal election, extending their decade-long rule. The victory, projected to secure 168 of 343 seats in the House of Commons, comes after a campaign dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s provocative threats of annexation and tariffs. While the Liberals may need smaller parties’ support to govern, the result marks a stunning recovery from earlier polls favoring the Conservatives.
In a stunning blow, Poilievre lost his own seat in Carleton, Ontario, to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy, casting doubt on his future as Conservative leader. Despite the defeat, Poilievre vowed to stay on, citing the party’s high vote share.
“We can give ourselves far more than the Americans can ever take away,” Carney said, outlining plans to bolster housing and internal trade to stimulate the economy.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Carney, noting the potential for deepened UK-Canada ties given Carney’s personal connections to the UK.
“This is the first major electoral repudiation of Trump outside the United States,” said a Liberal supporter. “In Canada, we live on the edge of the volcano.”
In a remarkable turnaround, Canada’s Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has won the 2025 federal election, extending their decade-long rule. The victory, projected to secure 168 of 343 seats in the House of Commons, comes after a campaign dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s provocative threats of annexation and tariffs. While the Liberals may need smaller parties’ support to govern, the result marks a stunning recovery from earlier polls favoring the Conservatives.
A Campaign Shaped by Trump
At the start of 2025, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, held a 25-point lead, with Poilievre poised to become prime minister. However, Trump’s escalating rhetoric—culminating in suggestions that Canada become the “51st state”—shifted the narrative. Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau in January, framed the election as a stand against U.S. aggression, rallying Canadians around national sovereignty.The campaign’s final days were marred by tragedy, with 11 deaths in a Vancouver attack, but the focus remained on Trump’s influence. The Liberals’ strategy to highlight Conservative ties to Trump’s ideology resonated, while Poilievre’s attempts to pivot to economic issues like cost-of-living failed to regain momentum.
Election Results: A Minority Government
As of April 29, 2025, the Liberals were projected to win 168 seats, four short of a majority, with the Conservatives trailing at 144. Smaller parties, including the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloc Québécois, saw significant losses, with the NDP dropping to under 10 seats and the Bloc falling to 23. The election saw over 80% of votes split between the two major parties, a level of consolidation not seen in nearly 70 years.In a stunning blow, Poilievre lost his own seat in Carleton, Ontario, to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy, casting doubt on his future as Conservative leader. Despite the defeat, Poilievre vowed to stay on, citing the party’s high vote share.
Carney’s Vision: Redefining Canada-U.S. Ties
Carney, a former Bank of England governor known for his measured competence, has promised to renegotiate trade with the U.S. while reducing Canada’s economic reliance on its neighbor. He emphasized stronger ties with the UK and Europe, signaling a shift from traditional Canada-U.S. relations.“We can give ourselves far more than the Americans can ever take away,” Carney said, outlining plans to bolster housing and internal trade to stimulate the economy.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated Carney, noting the potential for deepened UK-Canada ties given Carney’s personal connections to the UK.
What’s Next for Canada?
If the Liberals form a minority government, Carney will need to negotiate with smaller parties to pass legislation, a setup that historically lasts about two and a half years. The election’s outcome, driven by Trump’s polarizing presence, may not offer a universal blueprint for progressive parties elsewhere, given Canada’s unique ties to the U.S. However, it underscores the potential to turn Trump’s unpopularity into electoral advantage.“This is the first major electoral repudiation of Trump outside the United States,” said a Liberal supporter. “In Canada, we live on the edge of the volcano.”
