Irish News The Real State of Ireland’s Economy 2025: Behind the Headlines

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The Real State of Ireland’s Economy 2025: Behind the Headlines​

While Ireland continues to boast low unemployment and strong headline growth, a closer look at the data reveals a far more complex reality. Beneath the surface lies a surge in disability support reliance, rising Irish emigration, heavy dependence on U.S. multinationals, and questionable economic metrics that mask structural weaknesses. This article breaks it all down — with links to every claim.

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Who’s on the Live Register in 2025?​

The Live Register tracks those receiving Jobseeker’s Benefit or Allowance. As of June 2025:

• 172,663 people were signing on.
• 72.1% were Irish nationals, meaning 27.9% were non-Irish — including UK, EU, and other foreign nationals.

According to past breakdowns (e.g. April 2024):

• UK nationals: ~5,892
• EU15–EU27 (excluding Ireland): ~15,213
• Other non-EU nationals: ~31,338

However, recent CSO bulletins do not reveal how long each nationality group remains on the register, a significant gap in transparency.

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Duration on Supports​

From Table LRM11:

• 67.4% have been signing on for less than one year.
• 32.6% are long-term claimants (1 year or more).
• Of those long-term, 47% have been on for three years or more.

Yet, we still cannot determine which nationalities make up long-term dependency — as this data is not publicly broken down.

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Youth Joblessness: A Stubborn Challenge​

The under-25s make up:

• 14.3% of new (under 1 year) claimants
• 7.5% of long-term claimants

Meanwhile, the official youth unemployment rate for June 2025 is 10.7%, compared to the overall rate of 4.0%. This means young people are more than twice as likely to be unemployed.

See also: INOU June 2025 Analysis

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Where Are Things Worst?​

According to CSO regional data:

• Dublin: +4.2% increase in Live Register numbers (YoY)
• Kildare: +2.4%
• Kerry: –17.4%
• Clare: –12.8%

This points to urban stress and rural improvement, likely influenced by rising rents, housing shortages, and post-pandemic job redistribution.

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Irish Emigration on the Rise​

According to the CSO’s 2024 Population and Migration Estimates:

• 69,900 people emigrated from Ireland in the year to April 2024
• Of these, 34,700 were Irish citizens
• Just 30,000 Irish nationals returned, meaning a net loss of 4,700 Irish citizens

This is the highest outflow since 2015. Many of those leaving are young professionals and women, with anecdotal evidence pointing to cost-of-living frustrations and poor housing conditions as driving factors.

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Rise in Illness & Disability Supports​

Illness Benefit Trends​

With the rollout of Statutory Sick Leave (SSL) in 2024, employees began accessing paid sick days from employers instead of the state:

• Illness Benefit claims dropped by ~9% in Q1 2024 year-on-year
  (Source: RIA SSL Impact Report)

Disability Supports Rising​

From the CSO’s 2023 Social Protection Expenditure:

• €3.3 billion was spent on disability-related welfare supports
• Additional reports estimate total disability-related expenditure exceeds €12 billion annually (PBO Disability Report 2024)

Prevalence​

Census 2022 found:

• Over 1.1 million people (22%) in Ireland now report a long-term illness or disability, up from 643,000 in 2016.

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GDP vs GNI*: “Leprechaun Economics” Still at Play​

In 2015, Ireland’s GDP famously rose by 34.4% due to multinational profit-shifting—prompting Paul Krugman to coin the term “leprechaun economics”.
To counter this distortion, the CSO introduced Modified GNI (GNI*), which removes:

• Depreciation of foreign-owned intellectual property
• Profits of redomiciled companies

In 2023:​

• GDP: €510 billion
• GNI*: €291 billion
  (Source: CSO)
  This means €219 billion of GDP never actually entered the domestic economy.

More: Finfacts – Phantom Prosperity

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Heavy Reliance on U.S. Multinationals​

Ireland’s tax base and export performance are heavily tied to U.S.-based multinationals:

• Over 50% of corporation tax is paid by 10 U.S. firms, according to Revenue
• These include Apple, Pfizer, Meta, Google, Intel, and Microsoft.

As global tax policy tightens and trade tensions rise:

• The Irish Central Bank cut growth forecasts for 2025 due to Trump’s proposed tariffs
• A U.S.–EU trade war could slash Irish GDP by €18 billion over several years

Additional reading: FT – Ireland’s Economic Vulnerability

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Final Thoughts​

Issue	What the Data Shows
Unemployment	Low at 4.0%, but youth rate is 10.7%
Non-Irish Claimants	28% of Live Register — exact durations unknown
Disability/Illness	Rising disability prevalence, €12bn+ in spending
Emigration	Highest since 2015; net loss of 4,700 Irish nationals
GDP Distortion	GDP is €219bn higher than actual GNI*
US Dependence	Over 50% of tax revenue linked to U.S. firms; major risk from tariffs

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Conclusion​

Ireland’s economy may look strong from afar, but:

• Emigration is rising
• Youth unemployment remains high
• Long-term supports are growing
• And our national accounts are still distorted by multinational activity

A truly resilient economy must ensure stable domestic employment, transparent welfare data, and less dependence on external corporate tax windfalls.